Experts announce expected cost of Juan Soto’s contract in the Yankees and Mets free agent area

Experts announce expected cost of Juan Soto’s contract in the Yankees and Mets free agent area


The Juan Soto trade gave the New York Yankees the power they were hoping for and more in 2024. If they don’t want to lose him in MLB free agency in 2025, New York will have to be willing to pay far more than they did in the trade.

Soto, who turns 26 in October, is on pace to become one of the best players entering MLB free agency in the next few years. While he’s not as valuable as Shohei Ohtani, the outfielder will still be in his prime when he signs his next contract.

  • Juan Soto contract (Spotrac): $31 million salary this season, MLB free agent in 2025

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The 6-foot-2 corner outfielder has returned to MVP quality this season. After hitting 35 home runs with a .930 OPS in 568 at-bats last season with the San Diego Padres, Soto has surpassed or repeated that mark in nearly 150 fewer at-bats this season.

Soto’s defense is also improving, and he remains the most patient hitter in baseball. He has led the MLB in walk rate for several seasons in a row. It was the perfect contract year for Soto, which is why he is expected to make so much as an MLB free agent this winter.

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  • Juan Soto (ESPN) stats: .307/.438/.615, 1.052 OPS, 34 home runs, 87 RBI, 24 doubles in 436 ABs

In an expert poll conducted by Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the common contract projection for Soto was $500 million to $550 million for 10-plus seasons. If he made $550 million to $600 million, that would come with a 12- or 14-year deal, while the smaller contracts were for 10 to 12 seasons.

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The mark is obviously well below the 10-year, $700 million deal Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers this offseason. However, Ohtani’s $70 million average annual value is largely due to his unmatched marketability, and he also agreed to a $680 million deferral upon expiration of his contract.

Soto’s contract projections are more in line with Mike Trout’s contract (12 years, $426.5 million). Soto would receive a much larger deal than Aaron Judge (9 years, $360 million). So while Soto doesn’t come close to Ohtani’s deal, he should enter 2025 as the highest-paid everyday player in MLB, assuming Ohtani returns to pitching next season.

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