Image credit: Wikimedia / Mgchammas

Former Lebanese President Michel Aoun warned in an interview with the Lebanese Al-Akhbar news agency this week that a full-scale war with Israel could have devastating consequences for his country.

Aoun, whose term ends in 2022, spoke out strongly against the conflict between Lebanon and Israel, which began on October 8, 2023.

The conflict on Israel’s northern border began with Hezbollah, Lebanon’s Iranian proxy, launching daily attacks on Israel in support of the Hamas terrorist organization in Gaza – also an Iranian proxy – after it entered the Jewish state on October 7, slaughtering 1,200 people and kidnapping 251 hostages. The terror group still holds 107 people – at least 33 of whom are dead – captive in Gaza, including four hostages from 2014.

Due to the ongoing escalation of the conflict on Israel’s northern border, a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is becoming increasingly likely. Hezbollah has created a state within a state in southern Lebanon in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

“Today we are actually experiencing a kind of third world war. A devastating war is raging in Europe and in our region, there are fires everywhere. Lebanon is in the middle of a war today,” Aoun said, adding that he opposes Hezbollah’s current war against Israel.

“Lebanon is the smallest country in the region. We have neither common borders with Gaza, nor economic relations, nor a common defense agreement, and neither the Lebanese state nor the Arab League have decided to participate in this war.”

Aoun expressed support for US attempts to deter Israel from a ground war against Hezbollah in order to restore security to citizens in northern Israel.

“Their position has been the same so far, so why should we give them an excuse by violating Resolution 1701?” he said. “My position stems from the fear of losing to the Israelis and the fear for the future of Lebanon.”

“During the 2006 aggression, no one but me was in the resistance and I worked as its media spokesperson despite all the threats and warnings,” he said. But there have been many changes since 2006, he noted.

“In 2006, America supported the war, but this time it brought its fleets into the region from the first day after October 7. Does the balance of power allow us to stand up to America?

“Last time Israel attacked us, but this time we were the ones who started the battle and gave them the opportunity to get a grip on us,” he stressed.

“My fear stems from the fact that this war seems to me to be a war with broad international backing. Consider that despite the popular sympathy around the world for the tragedy of the Palestinians in Gaza, none of the influential countries has condemned Israel, and none of them has even threatened to worsen relations with Israel. It seems as if everyone supports this war.”

Aoun, a longtime supporter of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, said his relationship with Hezbollah remained “calm,” adding that despite his concerns, he had “confidence” in the terror army’s leader.

The Iranian proxy has become a “political party” in Lebanon, with a significant presence in parliament and even the government cabinet, blocking virtually any attempt to elect a leader that would threaten its territorial and political control.

Despite more than a dozen parliamentary attempts, no one has yet been elected to succeed Aoun.

The political impasse in which the country finds itself is not only at the national level: even local elections have been repeatedly postponed. At least part of the impasse is exacerbated by the fact that Iran, through its proxy, Hezbollah, controls the process.

The group’s political performance is fine, Aoun said, “but what about the other side’s intentions? Militarily, they are acting intelligently.”

“I hope with all my heart that I am wrong and that the war ends while Lebanon remains within its current borders, because I have a real fear that the Israelis want to occupy the area south of the Litani (river) to create a buffer zone,” he warned.

UN Security Council Resolution 1701 calls for the “deployment of Lebanese troops to southern Lebanon, the parallel withdrawal of Israeli troops behind the Blue Line, the reinforcement of UN forces (UNIFIL) to facilitate the entry of Lebanese troops into the region, and the establishment of a demilitarized zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River.” The resolution also imposes an arms embargo on Lebanon.

Hezbollah – and Lebanon – completely ignored the resolution, which has been consistently violated since it was signed by the Iranian proxy. The UN Interim Force in Lebanon, supposedly intended to act as a peacekeeping force, chose not to enforce UN Resolution 1701 rather than take on the Iranian proxy.