New parliaments will be elected next month in the three eastern German states of Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg. In all three states, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading in the polls.

In Thuringia, a federal state with 2.1 million inhabitants and the site of the famous Buchenwald memorial, the bitterly anti-immigration AfD is leading the polls with 30 percent ahead of the elections on September 1.

This puts it well ahead of the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), which was in power for 16 years under former Chancellor Angela Merkel. The CDU is currently polling at 21 percent in the country.

In view of a possible victory of the right-wing extremists in the state elections, experts believe there is reason to worry about the future of the German federal government – especially for the parties surrounding Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left bloc.

AfD seen as a “threat”

The German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified the Thuringian AfD as a right-wing extremist party. The AfD chairman in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, was convicted twice for using the banned Nazi slogan “Everything for Germany”.

The party’s current election manifesto bears the slogan “Everything for Thuringia” and has thus triggered a wave of concern among many, including Jens-Christian Wagner, the director of the Buchenwald Memorial, which commemorates the victims of the Nazi concentration camp of the same name.

Wagner is even more concerned about the success of the radical and extreme right in Germany following their strong result in the recent European elections.

He believes that the relativization of National Socialism is part of the “ideological core” of the AfD and that the Buchenwald Memorial may not survive if the party wins the election because it would then be able to intervene in the administration of the memorial.

“The AfD claims that the work we are doing here, the culture of remembrance, is a so-called ‘culture of guilt,'” said Wagner. “And according to this idea, I am the preacher of this culture of guilt. And of course that is why I have to go.”

During World War II, the Nazis imprisoned about 277,000 people in the Buchenwald camp; about 56,000 of them died.

After the camp was liberated by US troops, residents of the nearby town of Weimar were forced to visit. Their reaction is explained by the phrase “We didn’t know”: they claimed they hadn’t noticed.

This time, many are trying to raise the alarm so that people take notice. Wagner sees it as his duty to warn against the radical right and the trivialization of the Holocaust. This makes him one of the most important voices against the AfD.

“(It is frustrating) that despite our work in conveying history and politics, around 30 percent of Thuringians are currently prepared to vote for the AfD,” he said. “But of course that must not make us give up.”

Many seem undeterred

At an AfD rally in Neustadt an der Orla, participants appeared unimpressed by Wagner’s warnings.

“What has always bothered me is that people always say: ‘Germany started both world wars.’ That’s not true,” said one participant at the rally.

“Yes, that is indeed part of our history. But Germany is not the only country that has committed crimes, is it?” she added.

One of the speakers was the 52-year-old Thuringian AfD chairman Björn Höcke. He called out to those present: “The Germans need a normal patriotism again. A living patriotism,” he said.

“For 80 years, history has portrayed us as a kind of pariah,” he said. “It can’t go on like this. The Germans have to learn to be friends with themselves again. And that is also the mission of the AfD.”

At the campaign rally, people were convinced that the AfD would change this – albeit under the leadership of the man who was recently convicted of repeating Nazi slogans in his speeches.

Noble as the plan may be, the facts speak a different language: According to analysts, radical right-wing extremist forces, particularly in Thuringia, have created an environment that is hostile towards minorities – including black people.

Migration and foreign policy

In 2023, the non-governmental organization Ezra, which helps victims of right-wing extremist, racist and anti-Semitic violence, documented 85 racist attacks in Thuringia, only a slight decrease from 88 attacks in 2022.

Ezra described this as “a historic high point of right-wing and racist violence” in the state.

“In recent years, a right-wing extremist movement has formed in Thuringia, which has contributed to a noticeable ideological radicalization of its supporters. Politically, the Alternative for Germany party is the main beneficiary of this,” write Ezra and a consortium of organizations that pursue racism in their annual report.

Some companies in eastern Germany have also stated that the growing influence of the far-right AfD party is making it increasingly difficult for them to recruit urgently needed skilled foreign workers.

A recent survey by the German Economic Institute among more than 900 German companies also found that a majority sees the AfD as a risk – both for securing skilled workers and for investments in the region.

Last year, companies and individuals founded “Kosmopolitan Thuringia”, a grassroots network to promote tolerance, diversity and “indivisible human rights”, which now has more than 7,940 members.

In particular, the Thuringian regional association of the AfD came under official surveillance by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution four years ago as a “proven right-wing extremist” group.

Ten percent of Germany’s total population lives in the three eastern German states of Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg, and their election results are likely to have a major influence on domestic and foreign policy.

In terms of foreign policy, the war in Ukraine is an important issue, as is the migration question. Both right-wing and left-wing extremist parties are calling for negotiations with Russia and a halt to arms deliveries to Ukraine.

A new right-wing extremist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which split from the left-wing party Die Linke last year, wants negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, an end to arms deliveries to Ukraine and a weakening of climate policy.

The new left-wing populist upstart, led by Sahra Wagenknecht – an almost cult-like figure in East Germany – is polling at 20 percent in Thuringia and over 10 percent in Saxony. It is extremely critical of the current government, but offers few practical solutions.

Added to this is the issue of migration, in connection with which Olaf Scholz’s SPD government has long been under great pressure, especially since Friday’s attack in Solingen, in which a suspected extremist from Syria was involved.

Knife attack in Solingen triggers debate

In the stabbing on Sunday in the western part of the city, three people were killed and eight others injured, four of them seriously.

A few days later, the leader of the center-right opposition party CDU, Friedrich Merz, said he expected to work with Chancellor Olaf Scholz to tighten immigration policy.

Merz called for comprehensive measures to curb irregular migration and urged Scholz’s center-left SPD to work with the CDU on the issue.

The suspect in the Solligen attack, a 26-year-old Syrian who is in custody, was due to be deported to Bulgaria last year after his asylum application was rejected in Germany.

In order to keep the AfD out of power, there would have to be a possible alliance between the parties, possibly between BSW and CDU, which is almost unthinkable given their different positions on several issues.

The AfD is also quite strong in Saxony and Brandenburg in the elections on September 1 and 22 respectively. In Saxony, however, the CDU is doing better.

Possible alliance to counter the AfD?

They are currently on a par with the AfD at around 30 percent, while Sholz’s SPD coalition is at around five percent in opinion polls in Saxony and Thuringia, the hurdle for participation in government.

East Germany is widely perceived as a homogeneous region, but there are significant political differences between the individual federal states. In Thuringia, the socialist Left Party under Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow has governed for the past ten years, while in Saxony, Michael Kretschmer of the CDU has been in charge since 2017.

Carsten Koschmieder, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin, assumes that the AfD will become the strongest party, at least in Saxony. However, it is unlikely that it will achieve the 50 percent majority needed to participate in government.

Since the end of World War II, an absolute majority has been extremely rare in Germany, a system designed to curb the rise of an extremist to power. As a result, leading parties must usually form coalitions to govern, and a two-thirds majority is required to appoint judges.

But even if the AfD does not enter the government, it could still exert great influence, says Koschmieder.

Although the CDU has ruled out a coalition with the AfD at the local and federal level, it may backtrack on that promise. Analysts say the two parties have more in common than differences.

If there is a party to lose, it is Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats and their fractious coalition with the Greens and the neoliberal FDP.

Sholz has set the next federal election date for September 28, 2025, but first he must wait for the results of the elections in the east in September to see where Germany’s political dimension is heading.