On Sunday, voters in two former East German states will go to the polls. It could be a bad evening for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government, as major gains are expected for the far-right AfD.

The elections in Thuringia and Saxony come just a week after the suspected knife attack in Solingen, in which three people were stabbed to death, including a Syrian asylum seeker. The attack shocked Germany and sparked a bitter debate about immigration.

According to opinion polls, the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) is the strongest party in Thuringia with around 30 percent, while in Saxony it is neck and neck with the conservative CDU for first place.

Even if it wins the election, the AfD is unlikely to come to power in either federal state, as the other parties have ruled out working with it to form a majority.

Nevertheless, with a view to next year’s federal election, the result would be a humiliating defeat for Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) and the other parties in his governing coalition, the Greens and the liberal FDP.

In both federal states, Scholz’s SPD is polling at around six percent.

Elections will also be held in Brandenburg, a third former East German state, at the end of September. Here too, the AfD is in the lead with around 24 percent.

The picture is somewhat different in the individual federal states, but “it is clear that the AfD will have a very strong number of votes behind it,” Marianne Kneuer, political science professor at the Technical University of Dresden (TU Dresden), told AFP.

The election could not only cause headaches for Scholz’s coalition, it could also have international repercussions if it gives a boost to parties that oppose further support for Ukraine.

– “Unhappy protest voters” –

Founded in 2013 as an anti-euro group, the AfD then evolved into an anti-immigration party. It has enjoyed a resurgence over the past 12 months as Germany grapples with rising immigration numbers and a struggling economy.

The AfD is also benefiting from dissatisfaction with the three-party coalition in Berlin, which is characterized by disagreements and stalemates, most recently a lengthy dispute over the 2025 budget.

In the European Parliament elections in June, the party achieved a record 15.9 percent overall. It did particularly well in eastern Germany, where it emerged as the strongest force.

The AfD has also had some successes at the local level, including the election of its first mayor. However, a victory on Sunday in Thuringia or Saxony would be the party’s first victory in a state election.

The AfD is particularly strong in the former communist GDR, also because it has “a voter base there that can identify with its nationalist and authoritarian positions,” said Kneuer.

However, the party’s support there can also be attributed to “a large number of dissatisfied protest voters who are turning to the AfD because they do not want to vote for any other party,” she says.

Saxony is the most populous former East German state with around four million inhabitants and several major cities, including Leipzig, Dresden and Chemnitz.

Thuringia, which has around two million inhabitants and whose largest city is Erfurt, is the only federal state that currently has a chairman, Bodo Ramelow of the right-wing extremist party “Die Linke”.

– “The right party” –

After East Germany had struggled with economic difficulties for years following reunification, economic growth in East Germany was recently higher than in West Germany, and wage increases were also higher.

But “despite this positive economic development, differences and injustices (between East and West) still exist,” said Carsten Schneider, the government’s East German representative.

Stefan Angelow, 35, a security guard from Jena, Thuringia’s second-largest city, said the AfD was “the right party” to vote for, “especially after the attack in Solingen.”

“Open borders, anyone can come in… with who knows what in their hands,” says Angelov, who is originally from Bulgaria but has lived in Jena for ten years.

The BSW, a new party founded by the popular left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht after she left the Left Party, is also achieving good poll ratings in all three federal states.

The BSW has received great support for its stance against arms deliveries to Ukraine and won six percent of the vote in the EU elections in June.

“The BSW could possibly become an important factor in the formation of coalitions in Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony,” said Kneuer.

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