On Saturday, the 2024 college football season began across the pond in Ireland, the place where Northwestern earned its only victory two seasons ago. Memories of that matchup with Nebraska on the Emerald Isle are still vivid, constantly reminding Cats fans how far this team has come since that tumultuous season and the summer that followed.

Now, just four days before Northwestern begins its 2024 season on this side of the pond, the Cats find themselves in uncharted waters. Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium will host NU’s opening game against Miami (OH), the first game played in the temporary lakefront arena. The result against Miami — which, while in Northwestern’s favor, is not a guarantee — should give us clues as to what to expect for the season, but certainly won’t tell the whole story given what’s coming up in the Big Ten.

There is undoubtedly more excitement this season than last season, when the Cats exceeded all expectations. Given this optimism, let’s take a look at the lower and upper limits of this team and the most likely outcome for the upcoming season.

The floor: A return to 2022 form

This is an unlikely scenario, but not impossible given Northwestern’s schedule. The ‘Cats finished 1-11 in 2022, and while it’s crazy to imagine such a poor record, it’s not out of the question that they finish with two or three wins. Clearly, the schedule is definitely more challenging this season, as Northwestern faces dynamic teams like Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa and Washington in conference play.

The first three games of the season, all non-conference matchups, will be crucial for the ‘Cats in their quest for six wins to secure bowl berths. In this scenario, they would win one of their first three games, against either Miami of Ohio or Eastern Illinois. On paper, Eastern Illinois is easier to beat because the Panthers are FCS contenders and face Northwestern in their third game of the season, which should give the ‘Cats time to figure out their strengths and weaknesses and overcome any early season setbacks. Miami (OH) is a tougher team to crack because they are favorites to defend their MAC title and have one of the best scoring defenses in the country.

In conference, the ‘Cats could get anywhere from one to two wins, with a home victory against Indiana in NU’s first conference game at the lakefront being the most likely. The Hoosiers have a lot of work to do with new head coach Curt Cignetti, who comes over from James Madison, and begin the season as one of the weaker programs in the conference. An energetic crowd and strong defense should give Northwestern a significant advantage in this matchup, which will also be the first with a large student presence on campus. Northwestern also has a chance to beat Purdue in this scenario, another program in the conference that is near the bottom of the preseason rankings. The ‘Cats beat the Boilermakers in Ryan Field’s final game of last season and could be ready to do so again this time in West Lafayette. That game is by no means a sure thing, however, as quarterback Hudson Card is likely to play after missing last year’s matchup and halfback Devin Mockobee is always a threat to opposing defenses.

The maximum: Exceed last year’s number of wins

No one expected Northwestern to win seven games last season (eight if you count the Las Vegas Bowl), but the ‘Cats showed us that you should never write them off. Winning 8-9 games in 2024 is certainly a challenge for this team, but it’s not impossible. There are a few games that Northwestern has a very slim chance of winning – Ohio State and Michigan are the most obvious examples – but everything else on the schedule gives the ‘Cats a chance, albeit a slim one, to come out on top.

I think it’s entirely possible we win the first three games. Duke is the most challenging of the three teams, but Northwestern has the upper hand on defense against the Blue Devils, whose offense has a lot of questions to answer with Texas transfer Maalik Murphy at quarterback. In conference, Northwestern’s other likely losses would be Iowa or Washington, but it’s possible the ‘Cats pull off a surprise win in one of those road games. Washington’s team is now a shadow of what it was in 2023 when it won the National Championship, with head coach Kalen DeBoer moving to Alabama and many of his players moving on to the NFL. Iowa continues to have a strong defense, but their offensive inconsistency makes them beatable under the right circumstances. Either way, the ‘Cats will have their hands full as they’ll have to play these teams in two of the toughest environments in the country, and a win against either team will be difficult, but still possible in the best case scenario.

Wins in all other games aren’t that hard to imagine. Indiana and Purdue have been mentioned as possible winners, and Maryland, Wisconsin and Illinois could also be victories for the Cats. Northwestern beat all three of those teams last season, and none of them have improved enough to definitely move up to the top. It can be argued that Wisconsin, with transfer quarterback Tyler Van Dyke and a potentially stellar offense, fields a better team than Northwestern, but NU’s home-court advantage in this game could be the reason it remains competitive.

The average result: Shortly before the bowl participation

I’ll be realistic and give you my personal prediction, which I’ve been thinking about since I released this schedule in January. I expect Northwestern to win between five and seven times this season, somewhere in the middle between the two scenarios described above. This would give the ‘Cats a chance to qualify for a bowl game, but it would by no means guarantee that outcome. If you ask me, there’s a good chance it will come down to it in the final game of the season, where the Land of Lincoln Trophy is on the line against in-state rival Illinois.

In the non-conference schedule, Northwestern will win two games comfortably, with the game against Duke remaining a big question mark in that schedule. For this exercise, I’m assuming the ‘Cats lose in that Friday night showdown. These two teams are very evenly matched, so this game is very difficult to predict early in the season. However, with few students in attendance, I think Duke is the slim favorite, as new head coach Manny Diaz’s defense did just enough to stifle NU’s offense in a narrow win.

In conference play, the ‘Cats will defeat Indiana and Purdue, and also have a road win over Maryland. The two out-of-conference wins and the three just mentioned in conference play put Northwestern at five wins. I consider wins against Washington, Iowa, Ohio State or Michigan unlikely, as these are all tough opponents that will put the ‘Cats in hostile territory on the road. Ohio State is technically a home game at Wrigley Field, but it’s unrealistic to think Northwestern will have a crowd or game advantage against the preseason Big Ten favorites. Wisconsin and Illinois are both games that could go either way, giving the ‘Cats plenty of opportunities to reach the magic number six, but no guarantee they’ll do it.