The Phillies will go as far as their Big 3 will take them

The Phillies will go as far as their Big 3 will take them

In the modern MLB lineup, your top three hitters are usually your first three batters. The days of having the fast hitter first, the player with the least contact second, and the best all-around hitter third are largely over. To be clear, your best hitters might still possess those qualities and fall into one of those archetypes, but these days, a weaker hitter will rarely bat higher in the order because he possesses one of those qualities.

The big three

The Phillies are no different, and perhaps they embody the idea of ​​the three best hitters more than most teams. While it hasn’t been the case every game, the overwhelming majority of Phillies lineups start with Kyle Schwarber at leadoff, Trea Turner hitting second, and Bryce Harper at third. It’s common knowledge that these three are the Phillies’ top three offensive players. They are certainly among their highest-paid players, with two of them being among the highest-paid in the sport.

It’s also clear that these three have to be the driving force behind Philadelphia’s offense. And that’s exactly what they were in the first half of the season, as the Phillies’ first, second and third hitters combined for an OPS of .850 in the first half of the season. That number was the third-best in all of baseball, trailing only the Dodgers (.920) and Yankees (.899).

So it’s no coincidence that the Phillies finished the first half with a record of 62-34, the best in baseball. Of course, that was largely thanks to their excellent pitching, but the top players in their lineup performed consistently well, even when Turner was on the injured list.

As they do, so does the team

As you know by now, the Phillies have struggled to get going since returning from the All-Star break. Philadelphia has a 14-20 record since Monday’s break, ranking third among teams with the fewest wins and fourth most losses.

Almost directly related to this, the Phillies’ top three hitters have not returned to anywhere near the quality of attack they had before the break. Their 1-2-3 hitters, again primarily Schwarber, Turner and Harper, have combined for a .692 OPS in the second half, making them the sixth-worst top-three in the major leagues during that span. Their .223 average among all three top hitters is the fourth-worst.

There is no better testament to the impact Schwarber, Turner and Harper have on the team than the last two series Philadelphia has played. In Atlanta, the Phillies lost two of three games, with their big three combining to go 2-for-33 with 14 strikeouts. They lost two games by a total of three runs. Conversely, when Philadelphia won two of three games in Kansas City over the weekend, their big three combined to go 12-for-33 with 6 extra-base hits and 6 RBIs. The team scored a total of 11 runs in both wins.

The most obvious answer may be the best

There has been a lot of finger-pointing over the last month as to what the main reason for the team’s mid-summer losing streak was. The reasons ranged from starting pitching to the bullpen to the manager to the general manager to the lineup as a whole. While each answer has varying degrees of validity, in this case the most obvious is the best.

The Phillies struggled to win games because their top three hitters had trouble hitting.

It really is that simple.

Bryce Harper has a .213 batting average and is coming off one of the worst stretches of his career. Trea Turner has a .248 OBP and just broke an 0-19 record. Kyle Schwarber has been hit and miss, but he has the team’s best second-half OPS with a .880 batting average. When the Phillies’ lineup is going well, it can handle one of those three players not hitting. But when two or all of them are struggling, it becomes increasingly difficult to score.

Must be better

The return of Ranger Suárez from the injured list will go a long way to stabilizing the Phillies’ situation, especially in their rotation. But if they want to break out of this downward trend and compete in the increasingly tight race for the NL’s top two spots and the division title, their best hitters will have to perform. They need Harper in MVP form. They need Turner to be the player he was from August of last year to July of this year. They need Schwarber to continue to set the tone as the first hitter. If they can’t do that, it will be an uphill battle to stop the bleeding in the standings.

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