In a move that is not entirely surprising, given their Current statements about the expectation of being above the competitive balance tax threshold this season, the Cubs According to reports has placed Drew Smyly on waivers without recourse. He remains active and can continue to pitch for them until the waiver process is complete, but he’s gone if another team needs a left-handed starter for about $4.5 million. Smyly is due just under $2 million for the remainder of this season and also has a $2.5 million severance package for his $10 million option for next season.

Because this buyout is part of a non-guaranteed year, it is factored into the AAV of a contract that currently stands at $11.5 million, even though he originally signed for two years and $19 million. That should have been $9.5 million AAV, but Smyly triggered $2 million in bonuses for hitting innings goals last season, which also increased his salary this year by the same amount. Given Roster Resource is at an estimated CBT pay slip of $237,434,898, the Cubs could slip below the mark if another team claims Smyly.

That could happen despite the relatively high price tag, since we’re talking about a veteran left-hander who has regularly pitched multiple innings as a relief pitcher and has 179 career starts. He’s also pitching with more even splits this season than he has in the past, just ignore the gap between his 2.84 ERA and his 4.77 FIP. And maybe don’t look under the hood either when you see the .245 BABIP allowed. Even with a red flag or two, it’s easy to imagine Smyly getting snatched up.

My first thought here is that it would be pretty foolish to put yourself in penalty status with less than half a million dollars, only to end up at or just above .500 and out of the playoffs. My next thought, and I expressed this when Hoyer and Crane Kenney first discussed their CBT status a few weeks ago, is that maybe saying they were willing to go above that was just some kind of red herring. I still think the picture was bad, but it makes sense that team management would push back against the “stingy Ricketts” narrative that has developed over the past few years.

“The CBT is not a governor,” Kenney said. “I know some people think we’re afraid to raise the tax, (but) for the right player and the right circumstances and the right season, it’s not a governor and it hasn’t been this year. And that’s a credit to our owners who want to win like everyone else.”

While I believe that under the right circumstances, owners were willing to overstep the first penalty, which Hoyer said was a good deal for Cody Bellinger, I also believe there were caveats. For example, overstepping might have been tied to postseason success. That would explain why Hoyer held onto Héctor Neris for so long, and why Smyly was released just in time to preserve postseason eligibility for interested contenders. We may even see a few other players released here soon—Patrick Wisdom and Mike Tauchman spring to mind—though none will have the same potential financial impact as Smyly.

Aside from the payroll impact, the Cubs also need to make room for Jordan Wicks’ return from the IL. The bespectacled left-hander has been out of action since mid-June with an oblique abdominal muscle problem and will make another rehab appearance for Triple-A Iowa on Friday, which would be his fifth this month.

Their strong play has put them in second place in the division, but the Cubs are still 5.5 games behind the Braves in the battle for the final Wild Card spot with only 30 games left on the schedule. Even if Craig Counsell’s team goes 20-10 during that time and finishes 86-76, the Braves would have to finish 14-17. That’s a tall order, especially since the Braves’ .542 winning percentage would allow them to turn those results around and go 17-14 to finish 88-74.

Can the Cubs catch fire and overtake the Braves 23-7, not to mention the Mets (2.5 games ahead) and Giants (tied)? I mean, sure, anything is possible. But just as Carter Hawkins explained that there are two people in the front office whose job it is to monitor all the changing salary nuances throughout the season, they are surely also tracking the chances of playing into October. Even for those unfamiliar with the intricacies involved, it’s easy to see that losing Smyly has a much bigger impact on one problem area than the other.

While this is by no means a death sentence, it is hard to deny that the clock starts ticking a little louder towards the end of the season.