Mike Tomlin, head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, is officially three years older than Bill Cowher when he decided to leave his position.

After questions arose last season about Tomlin’s potential retirement from the NFL, the Super Bowl-winning coach has officially decided to return for an incredible 18th season with the Steelers.

Yes, it has actually been that long since Tomlin took charge in 2007. He won a Super Bowl one season later, lost one two seasons after that, and performed at best marginally in every season after that.

Tomlin has never had a losing season with Pittsburgh, and a couple of 8-8 seasons were the worst he’s ever had as a head coach. It would be ridiculous to think he’s capable of more at this point, and it’s probably safe to assume the Steelers will find a way to put together another decent season.

However, Tomlin’s team hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season, making it increasingly difficult to believe Pittsburgh can do more than it has over the past decade. Consistently good, occasionally really good, treading water without much sign of progress.

The Steelers are no longer the dominant team in the AFC, as the days of Ben Roethlisberger and the vaunted “Iron Curtain” defense that absolutely dominated the conference have given way to the glory days of Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.

The franchise’s continued inability to replace Roethlisberger grows larger each year, as even Big Ben’s weaker years dwarf what the team has had at quarterback since his retirement in 2021.

The “Bullyball” Steelers continue to hit people over the head with a lunchbox, and that won’t change in 2023 with former Atlanta Falcons coach Arthur Smith calling the plays on offense. Pittsburgh has a lot of potential for another successful season, even if they have a very tough schedule ahead of them. However, the ceiling is getting thicker the longer this goes on, and it’s fair to wonder if this will be Tomlin’s last run with the Terrible Towels before he follows in his predecessor’s footsteps and gets out while he still can.

How long will it take for this backward offensive to lose its back?

At the time of publication, we have no idea who will start at quarterback for the Steelers this year.

The uncertainty shouldn’t be a surprise. Smith’s career as an offensive playmaker usually tends toward quarterbacks who are still in the building phase, and he was lucky to have Ryan Tannehill completely turn his luck around on the field in 2019 with the Tennessee Titans for a couple of really good seasons. His 2021 season with former Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was pretty decent as well, even if that team was talentless and stuck in the dead cap quagmire.

Smith is currently in Pittsburgh, however, because the Falcons position fell out from under him. Trying to revive Marcus Mariota’s career only got him so far in 2022 before benching the former first-round pick, and trying to squeeze a franchise starter out of Desmond Ridder led to a mess of musical chairs last fall. Ridder couldn’t stop losing the ball at the worst possible moments, and quarterback Taylor Heinicke’s player mentality hurt Smith’s scheme more than it helped.

Now Smith will try to find something that works between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Can he pull a Tannehill out of the hat this time?

The odds are not in his favor, as Wilson was such a liability for the Broncos that they ate $53 million in dead cap space this season just to start over at the position. Fields was traded for a late-round draft pick because of his rocky road with the Chicago Bears, a player with red-hot potential obscured by irrepressible inconsistency.

In reality, Smith will likely work just as hard as he did last fall with the Falcons to hide the problems at the quarterback position and maximize the running game as much as possible.

Running back Najee Harris has rushed for 1,000 yards in all three of his seasons with the Steelers and now has the most run-friendly playmaker of his NFL career. Harris is no Derrick Henry or Bijan Robinson, but he should have no trouble reaching his fourth 1,000-yard season with Smith in charge. Running back Jaylen Warren and Smith’s old Falcons buddy Cordarrelle Patterson, as well as versatile fullback Connor Heyward, should also get plenty of running practice.

They have to be for this offense to work. Pittsburgh’s offense will live and die by the run game this year, just as Atlanta did in Smith’s last two seasons. There were just as many quarterback concerns with the Falcons in those years as there are with Smith’s Steelers now, and it’s possible that old habits will be hard for the new offensive coordinator to break. Whether it’s Wilson or Fields, it feels like Pittsburgh will be faced with solving the quarterback problem again in 2025.

The quarterback concerns don’t bode well for a robust passing attack, even if the tight ends soon get more targets. George Pickens is a flash ready to make explosive plays, but will he have the quarterback play needed?

How will Smith’s offensive line pave the way for the running game? Can they keep the quarterback upright for 17 games, which is essential either to Wilson’s health or Fields’ foot-finding? Questions remain as Smith tries to restore his reputation as an elite offensive player.

This is going to be an old-school offense, make no mistake about that. But how long will it be before the bell rings and people start clearing the classroom? To differentiate this from any other Steelers offense in recent years, the risk of making money at the quarterback position has to pay off. For Smith, it ends up being a risk that doesn’t pay off more often.

We regret to inform you that this defense will continue to be a major problem for your favorite football team

Forget the offense. The Steelers still hold the Iron Curtain proudly in Pittsburgh, led by perhaps the best defensive line in football and promising progress at both linebacker and in the secondary.

Outside linebacker TJ Watt remains one of the truly best pass rushers in the NFL and is flanked by a damn good Robin in Alex Highsmith. Nick Herbig could also break into the rotation this fall as a disruptor at that position. Add in the crafty veteran Cameron Heyward, the up-and-coming nose tackle Keeanu Benton and the very solid Larry Ogunjobi up front and you have the makings of a stifling defensive front that honors the past and terrorizes the present.

The Baltimore Ravens’ acquisition of linebacker Patrick Queen should be very helpful at the center of the defense after Queen’s breakout year in 2023, and it will be interesting to see what long-range rookie linebacker Payton Wilson does on the field.

Cornerback Joey Porter Jr. played like a Pro Bowler last year and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick remains a problem for the offense. There is more than enough talent in other areas of the roster to make this defense one of the five best in the NFL if all goes well and everyone stays healthy. Frankly, that’s the least of Pittsburgh’s worries.

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The Steelers will likely sneak into the AFC playoffs as a strong seventh seed, and we’ll all praise Tomlin and Smith for pulling out nine or 10 wins despite a flawed quarterback team. For Pittsburgh, though, right now it’s repeat and repeat until Tomlin decides to quit.

Maybe it’ll be late 2024, and Pittsburgh will poach Mike Vrabel from the Cleveland Browns’ staff, armed with that franchise’s trade secrets, reunite him with Smith and relive the Titans’ glory days. Maybe Tomlin will coach for another 20 years, continuing to pile up winning records like Jenga blocks decorated with superglue.

As long as he’s there, we don’t question whether this team can win enough games in the regular season to get anywhere. Unless something changes, we’re not sure this team can really be more than what it already is.