Everything is quiet in the Atlantic.

At least for now, meteorologists said this week. They once predicted this hurricane season would produce 17 to 25 named storms. So far, it has produced five. Meteorologists stuck to their predictions this month, saying they are waiting for a tropical storm surge that could come in September and October. They also urged residents skeptical of the extraordinary forecast not to tempt fate just yet.

“Enjoy the silence,” wrote meteorologist Michael Lowry in his newsletter on Monday. “Because we know things will soon get better again.”

The National Hurricane Center is predicting no activity for the next seven days. Meteorologists acknowledge that the season has been quieter than predicted so far. But few are willing to curse the forecast. The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration updated its numbers just in early August: The agency is now predicting 17 to 24 named storms by the end of the season on November 30.

If this week’s forecast is correct, next Monday would be the first time since 1956 that August has ended without storms in the Atlantic, Lowry said.

“This is not exactly what we expected for the end of August and first days of September during one of the most active hurricane seasons ever forecast,” he wrote.

However, he said that breathing a sigh of relief now would be like announcing victory “twelve minutes into the first quarter of a 60-minute football game.”

Sahara dust dampens activity

The recent lull was caused by dry air near Africa, meteorologists said. Disturbances that would normally move westward are spreading so far north of the African coast that they disappear in cooler temperatures and heavy Saharan dust.

“They are so far north that they come into contact with a lot of dry air,” said Tyler Stanfield, a meteorologist at the National Weather Center in Slidell. “Basically, they all fall apart when they leave Africa.”

That could change in the first two weeks of September. A “collision zone” where the early beginnings of many tropical storms form will shift southward over the course of September as the Saharan dust settles, Lowry said. A southward shift in the North African monsoon would lead to stronger, longer-lasting thunderstorms that would spur tropical development, Stanfield said.

It’s unclear how busier tropical weather might affect the Mississippi coast. Forecasts aren’t uncertain until several days before a storm. The last storm to hit the region was Hurricane Ida in 2021.

“Nothing screams for the switch to be flipped,” Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore wrote on social media on Monday.

But any system that makes it as far as the coast of Africa would likely strengthen, as other storms have done, Stanfield said. In July, Hurricane Beryl took advantage of favorable winds and hot ocean waters to quickly develop into the earliest Category 5 storm ever recorded. This month, Hurricane Debby moved through Florida’s warm coast, hitting the state’s Big Bend region before inundating states in the southeastern U.S. with record rainfall.

Is a quiet hurricane season in August normal?

Meteorologists warned that 80 percent of tropical activity occurs after August 26. The peak of the season is September 10.

“To mock this season now would be foolish,” Lowry said.

Calms are normal. In 2023, no storms formed from late July to mid-August, according to The Weather Channel, then four storms developed in less than two days at the end of the month. In 2022, there was no tropical depression in the Atlantic that was called a storm or hurricane for 60 days, according to meteorologists, but it ended with Hurricane Ian – one of the worst storms in recent history.

All this suggests that it is too early to say what September might bring, Stanfield said.

“It pays to be cautious.”