Pressure on the Heritage Foundation grew so great that Project 2025 architect Paul Dans announced his resignation. Then far-right influencers like Owens, Loomer and Fuentes began to voice their concerns.

In a tweet viewed more than 2.6 million times, Fuentes said the campaign had been “hijacked.” “Without serious change, we are heading for a catastrophic defeat.”

Owens, who has five million followers on X, said in a recent podcast that she was “not sure who else is behind the MAGA bus” and issued a warning directly to Trump: “You are losing the support of the people who believed in you… You need those people.”

These influencers have not actually “turned” against Trump. By placing the blame on the campaign and senior staff, they are playing it safe. If he wins in November, they will say it is because Trump listened to them and is in a good position to expand that power and influence either within or alongside his administration. If he loses, they have already placed the blame on the campaign.

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Their dilemma is that no matter what the outcome, they must maintain their credibility lest they too lose the eyes and ears (and therefore their revenue stream) of their permanent online audience. Having “influence” is what makes them money and gives them fame. If they back a loser or didn’t see a loss coming, they can hardly claim to have influence.

These influencers have no interest in appealing to moderates, independents, or swing voters; they are absolutely convinced that Trump can only win if he mobilizes their base. They believe that base is enough, driven by their own righteous cause, even if polling data suggests otherwise.

That’s why they’re increasingly insistent that Trump return to an agenda that’s just as blatantly right-wing as their own. In their eyes, he’s struggling not because he doesn’t have enough popular support, but because he’s leaning too far toward the center.

For them, Trump represents the possible culmination of an ideological generational project. They are desperate for power and want to impose minority rule. This is a fraud, but an ideologically motivated one.

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A defeat in November would be an existential blow to their incomes, their influence and their ideology. That is why they are so worried.

But even though they issue warnings and demand campaign donations, they will not turn against Trump until they are absolutely certain that he is a hopeless case – and that is far from certain.

Dr Emma Shortis is a senior researcher in the International and Security Affairs Program at the Australia Institute.

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