Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Ukraine on August 23. The trip is seen as a diplomatic balancing act after Modi’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow last month, which caused a stir in Kyiv and the West.

Modi’s visit is the first trip by an Indian head of state to Kyiv since the countries established bilateral relations over 30 years ago.

The US was particularly concerned about Modi’s two-day visit to Russia, as it sees New Delhi as a key pillar of its strategy to contain a rising China.

Indian analysts say a key reason for Modi’s visit is to make up for the damage caused by his trip to Moscow on July 8 and 9. The trip coincided with a deadly Russian missile attack on a children’s hospital in Kyiv, which sparked sharp international criticism.

In a rebuke to the Kremlin, Modi said the deaths of innocent children were “painful,” reiterating India’s stated position that political problems cannot be solved “on the battlefield.”

More importantly, Modi’s visit to Ukraine should be seen as part of India’s multifaceted foreign policy of “strategic autonomy”.

In pursuing this goal, New Delhi is walking a fine line and is striving for a closer security partnership with the West – for example within the framework of its Quad security alliance with Australia, Japan and the USA – in order to create a bulwark against its arch-enemy China.

At the same time, India has historically good relations with Russia and purchases arms and oil from Moscow at reasonable prices. For this reason, India has maintained a neutral stance and neither condemned nor condoned Russia’s war in Ukraine. India believes that the conflict must be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy.

New Delhi fears that condemning Russia and joining Western sanctions against Moscow could anger the Kremlin and move closer to India’s arch-rivals China and Pakistan.

India does not want to alienate Ukraine, but wants to position itself as an impartial actor. In his carefully crafted balancing act, Modi has ruled out India’s role as a mediator to end the war, Bloomberg reported, citing an inside source. New Delhi has agreed to pass on messages between Putin and Zelensky, it said.

From Ukraine’s perspective, according to Bloomberg, India has played an important role in persuading some countries in the so-called Global South to either remain neutral in the war or to show support for Ukraine.

Expanding economic cooperation

Modi and Zelensky last met in June on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Italy. They have also spoken on the phone several times since the war began.

In addition to discussions on geopolitics, which take place against the backdrop of Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, the leaders will also focus on expanding economic cooperation.

According to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, bilateral trade between India and Ukraine reached $3.3 billion in the 2021-2022 financial year, a fraction of the annual trade turnover between India and Russia of $65 billion.

Ukraine wants to strengthen economic relations with India, especially in the areas of agriculture, aviation, pharmaceuticals and industry, Zelensky said earlier this year.

India, in turn, needs defense products from Ukraine, especially aircraft and ship engines.

Modi’s visit to Ukraine could provoke a similar negative reaction in Russia as his visit to Moscow drew the ire of Washington.

The challenge for Indian diplomacy is to coordinate its private messages in a way that allays concerns in both countries while portraying the trip as a bold new initiative, wrote Shashi Tharoor, a former Indian minister and diplomat.

“Going through with this would be a geopolitical triumph. But if the visit goes wrong, it could cause incalculable damage to India’s standing in the world,” Tharoor said in an interview on August 13. comment for Project Syndicate.

Before Ukraine, Modi visited Polanda strong ally of Kyiv, on August 22, the first trip by an Indian head of state to Warsaw in more than 40 years.

By RFE/RL

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