A recent study led by Dartmouth found that the worst-case predictions of sea level rise due to melting ice sheets are unlikely to come to pass. But that doesn’t change the fact that melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica remains a concern.

The study challenges the existing report by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which describes a possible scenario in which Antarctica could be a major contributor to twice the average global sea level rise by 2030, in fact by three times.

However, this study says something different. The researchers of this study show that if the IPCC report is to be believed, the Florida peninsula would have been underwater long ago. This group of researchers implemented Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI) with three high-resolution models that can help collect data with greater accuracy.

New research challenges extreme predictions about the Thwaites Glacier’s impact on sea levels

As part of their research, the experts conducted experiments on the Thwaites Glacier, popularly known as the Doomsday Glacier because it is melting faster, and to analyze whether it could cause global sea levels to rise by more than two feet.

According to the researchers’ latest calculations and projections, the Doomsday Glacier will almost certainly not collapse. However, the conclusions of the IPCC report are incorrect, they added.

Mathieu Morlighem, a professor at Dartmouth University, said: “These forecasts actually change people’s lives. Politicians and planners rely on these models and often look at the highest risk. They don’t want to design solutions and then the threat turns out to be even worse than thought,” Morlighem said.

“We are not saying that Antarctica is safe and that sea levels will not continue to rise – all our forecasts show rapid ice retreat. But sophisticated forecasts are important for coastal planning and we want them to be physically accurate. In this case, we know that this extreme forecast is unlikely to occur over the course of the 21st century,” he added.

Understanding the Doomsday Glacier: New insights into ice shelf collapse and sea level rise

Morlighem added that the concept behind MICI refers to an ice shelf that is rapidly collapsing, leaving the ice cliffs at the outer edges of the ice sheet exposed and without support.

If these cliffs are high, they are most likely to break under their own weight. This phenomenon would even cause an even higher cliff to be exposed. This would result in a faster retreat as it would cause the ice sheet to collapse inwards.

The consequence would be that the shift of ice into the ocean and its gradual melting would possibly lead to a rise in sea levels.

Doomsday Glacier has made the news several times because it has been classified as endangered. It also stays under the radar because of its potential to cause ice shelf collapse. This research is particularly important in providing a different perspective on glacier melting and sea level rise.

Although researchers are monitoring the glacier, it is safe to say that its future is uncertain at this time.