Welcome back. After its victory in the European elections in June, the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) is now aiming for victory in the parliamentary elections scheduled for September 29. On Wednesday, the party published its election manifesto – more on that below.

If the FPÖ wins next month, it will have serious consequences for the rest of Europe – not least because of the party’s sympathies for Russia and the consequences of a spy scandal such as Austria has seen all too often recently. You can reach me at [email protected].

The Austrian exception

Across Europe, conservative nationalist, far-right and more extreme right parties have had mixed results over the past two years. The Brothers of Italy won the 2022 elections in their country, but not alone, but as part of a broad conservative coalition.

In the Netherlands, the Freedom Party won elections last November and is now part of the governing coalition. However, Poland’s Law and Justice party lost power a month earlier. In June, France’s Rassemblement National won the EU elections, but its hopes of gaining some power at the national level were dashed in the parliamentary elections that followed immediately afterwards.

Austria is a special case.

The FPÖ’s victory in the EU elections was the first time it had topped a nationwide poll in Austria. However, unlike other parties of its kind, it is no newcomer to power. Since its founding in 1956, it has been part of three governing coalitions – from 1983 to 1986, 2000 to 2006 and 2017 to 2019.

For many Austrian voters, the FPÖ is a completely normal part of the national political scene – even if its right-wing extremist profile has taken on even sharper features under Herbert Kickl, its party leader since 2021.

If you read German, I recommend a new book by experienced Austrian legislator Peter Pilz: Eastern Bloc: Putin, Kickl and their ÖVP (Eastern Bloc: Putin, Kickl and their ÖVP).

Among other things, the book raises the question of whether the ÖVP – the conservative Austrian People’s Party currently in power – could form the next government with the FPÖ. It also discusses whether Austria under Kickl could become Vladimir Putin’s “next stronghold in Central Europe, as Hungary did” – to quote a review by Edina Paleviq for the magazine Europe Now.

No easy path to power

For the FPÖ, the path to a fourth term in government is likely to be complicated.

The party won the EU election with 25.4 percent of the vote, but performed worse than expected. The ÖVP with 24.5 percent and the Social Democrats with 23.2 percent came in second and third.

Ahead of next month’s election, opinion polls put the FPÖ in the lead, but there is no guarantee that it will come first. And it is certainly not in a position to form a government without a coalition partner. The party may not even manage to get one of its candidates into the chancellorship – a position it has never held before.

Marcus How, Head of Research and Analysis at ViennEast Consulting in Vienna, comments:

Even if the FPÖ receives the majority of votes, it is not certain that it will form the next government. Officially, it has no viable coalition partners because all parties refuse to work together, especially with Kickl.

They are supported in this by Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen, the former chairman of the Greens. Van der Bellen explicitly stated that he would not necessarily entrust the FPÖ with leading coalition negotiations. He cited their “anti-European” stance and their refusal to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine as reasons.

An aversion to Kickl

When the FPÖ was last in government, it shared power with the ÖVP. This is also a plausible scenario after the elections next month. The crucial question, however, is whether Kickl would agree to such a coalition if the price for it was his expulsion from office.

The Austrian ÖVP Chancellor Karl Nehammer has publicly stated: “You can’t run a state with Kickl.”

Gabriela Greilinger from Social Europe explains why Nehammer is reluctant to share power with Kickl:

Nehammer’s dislike of the FPÖ leader has long been known.

This is probably due to the fact that Nehammer took over the Interior Ministry after the new elections that followed the turbulent breakup of the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition in 2017-2019 in the wake of the Ibizagate scandal. The ministry was reportedly in such a bad state after Kickl’s term in office that many allied intelligence services no longer trusted Austria.

For details on the “Ibizagate” affair – a video recording of FPÖ leaders discussing shady business deals with a woman who was allegedly the niece of a Russian oligarch – see my Austria newsletter from last year.

Spy scandal

If Ibizagate was bad enough, the so-called Ott affair may be even worse. In this in-depth report, the FT’s Sam Jones provides the details.

Egisto Ott, a former Austrian intelligence agent, was taken into custody in March on suspicion of spying for Russia. He denies the charge and no formal charges have been brought against him. He was released in June but remains under investigation.

The Austrian police arrest warrant states that Ott was hired by Jan Marsalek, a fugitive former executive at the insolvent German financial services company Wirecard, to support Russian espionage activities across Europe.

Marsalek, an Austrian citizen who was deeply involved in the Wirecard fraud and is believed to be in Russia today, is considered by Western intelligence services to be a long-time agent of Moscow.

Now the FPÖ is defending itself against accusations by its political rivals that it
Some of Ott’s alleged activities on behalf of Russia took place when Kickl was Austrian Interior Minister.

Kickl and the FPÖ not only deny any wrongdoing, but also point out – not without reason – that any failures in matters of national security could be blamed on the ÖVP. After all, the mainstream conservatives were the dominant party in the coalition from 2017 to 2019.

Russia in Austrian politics

The fact is that most Austrian parties have had a lenient attitude towards Russia for decades, but the FPÖ is the most Kremlin-friendly of all – even if one would not necessarily come to this conclusion when looking at its election manifesto.

It downplays the party’s ties to Russia and highlights other issues it believes resonate with voters – controlling immigration, the role of Islam in Austrian society and the state of the economy.

The FPÖ cleverly hides its sympathies for Russia behind the cloak of Austrian neutrality, which is undoubtedly dear to voters. Aimé Mühlemann, a writer on the editorial board of European Horizons, writes:

Austria has not yet accepted the changed realities in Europe since the Cold War… The population continues to see itself as a mediator between Russia and the West, which is reflected in the fact that the country continues to import most of its gas from Russia and does business with Russian companies…

Due to Austria’s close ties to Russia, Western intelligence services are increasingly hesitant to pass on sensitive information to Austria.

“Stop the EU madness”

How disruptive would the next Austrian government be to the EU if it included or was led by the FPÖ?

In terms of propaganda and rhetoric, the FPÖ differs from all established Austrian parties due to its hostility towards the EU. Before the European elections, the FPÖ conducted its election campaign under the slogan “Stop the EU madness”.

According to the European Commission’s regular Eurobarometer surveys, Austrians have a slightly more negative opinion of the EU than the average European citizen.

However, the FPÖ is not seriously pursuing the goal of an “Öxit”, i.e. Austria’s exit from the EU. Rather, like Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán or France’s right-wing extremist Marine Le Pen, it is striving to transform the EU from within into a loose association of nation states.

In this spirit, the FPÖ – alongside Orbán’s Fidesz and the Ano movement of former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš – is one of the three founding parties of a new right-wing extremist political group in the European Parliament called “Patriots for Europe”.

If the FPÖ were to lead or be part of the next Austrian government, it would certainly join those calling for a less pro-Ukrainian policy in the war with Russia and those opposing the EU’s new asylum and migration pact.

All in all, this means quite a headache for the EU, whose heads of state and government will certainly be following the Austrian election campaign closely.

More on the topic

Dancing with Putin: Why Austria is still so close to the Kremlin – an analysis by Meret Baumann for the Neue Zürcher Zeitung

Tony’s tips of the week

• Fund managers, bankers and companies that previously raised capital in Saudi Arabia are feeling the impact as the kingdom shifts the investment focus of its $925 billion sovereign wealth fund to domestic priorities, the FT’s Andrew England, Chloe Cornish and Brooke Masters report.

• Pro-Kremlin social media accounts in Germany that spread far-right messages and conspiracy theories are often linked to people with a Russian background or Russian family history, writes Sophia Winkler for the Berlin Center for East European and International Studies.