War could cost Lebanese economy three billion dollars a month
A war in Lebanon could cause direct and indirect losses of up to three billion dollars a month to the Lebanese economy, said a report by Murr Television (MTV) Lebanon on Wednesday.
The MTV report estimated that the economic cost of the current fighting is nearly 10 percent of national GDP per day, or $6 million per day.
They estimate that the Lebanese economy has lost almost two billion dollars since the fighting began – if this prediction is correct.
If Lebanon were to experience a full-scale war, the economic damage would be devastating. The report estimates that the cost could be as high as $100 million a day, or 166 percent of GDP, for a total of $3 billion a month.
According to the report, the war came at a terrible time for the Lebanese economy, which had only just begun to recover from the immense financial and economic crisis that has hit the country since 2019.
One crisis after another
The Lebanese economy is now less than half the size it was before the series of crises, having shrunk from its peak of just under $55 billion (2018) to just under $18 billion (2023).
After being hit by the financial crisis in 2019, the country was hit by the coronavirus pandemic and the explosion at the port of Beirut in 2020, followed by the commodity crisis resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which left the country on extremely shaky economic footing.
The report also noted that the economic recovery is unlikely to be as rapid or effective as in 2006.
In 2006, the Lebanese banking system was still strong and the Lebanese pound remained strong; moreover, the Arab Gulf states were much more willing to provide Lebanon with credit lines.
Nevertheless, the report said that any war could lead to a significant improvement in the economy in the long term if the recovery was well managed.
