Large and slow-flying Ukrainian drones such as the UJ-22 Airborne and the A-22 Foxbat have successfully penetrated Russia’s much-vaunted layered air defenses. The drones have repeatedly attacked heavily defended Russian air bases and energy storage and processing facilities.

The Ukrjet UJ-22 Airborne is a single-engine drone capable of carrying either an internal warhead or multiple bombs weighing up to 20 kg. It has the shape of a traditional light aircraft with straight, high wings and a tractor propeller, simple straight wings and fixed landing gear.

The 3.7 meter long drone with a wingspan of 4.2 meters is one of the largest known kamikaze drones in use. It has a range of 800 km. The A22 Foxbat is a similarly sized drone.

Recent devastating Ukrainian drone attacks

Since the start of the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk on August 6, Ukrainian drones have attacked air bases in Baltimore and Borisoglebsk in the Voronezh region, as well as Savasleyka in the Nizhny Novgorod region.

On the night of August 22, Ukrainian drones attacked the Marinovo military airport, which also hosts tactical Su-24MR aircraft. Footage posted on social media accounts shows hits on the airfield and resulting fires. The attack also affected Volgograd airport, temporarily halting flight operations.

For five days, Russian firefighters fought to extinguish a fire at an oil depot in the city of Proletarsk that was caused by a Ukrainian drone attack on August 18.

In addition, on the night of August 22, an oil refinery in the Volgograd region was attacked by Ukrainian drones, which sparked a fire at a military facility. Andrei Bocharov, governor of the Volgograd region, said that a “facility of the Ministry of Defense” was on fire after being attacked by drones in the Marinovka area.

These attacks demonstrate Ukraine’s increasing ability to conduct long-range drone operations, impacting critical infrastructure and military facilities in Russia.

Russian cruise missiles – less impressive

In contrast, the success of smaller, stealthier and faster Russian cruise missiles in penetrating Ukrainian airspace has been surprisingly limited, even disappointing.

The Russian Kalibr 3M-14 cruise missile, for example, is much smaller than a UJ-22 drone. It is designed to be much more inconspicuous and flies almost seven times faster than the drone.

However, statistics from the Ukrainian General Staff on the effectiveness of air defense show that the penetration rate of the Kaiber is only 50 percent. The penetration rate of the even better camouflaged Russian Kh-101 missile is even worse, at around 30 percent. It is likely that the statistics published by the Ukrainian authorities are fake, but they reveal a trend.

Drones and cruise missiles as targets

Fighting a small, hard-to-detect cruise missile flying at 850 km/h in a low-terrain profile would be at least ten times more difficult than fighting a much larger, non-stealthy drone flying at a similar altitude at 120 km/h!

Russian air defenses are as good as Ukrainian ones, maybe even better. Since the Kh-101’s penetration rate is only 30%, one would expect the UJ-22’s penetration rate to be close to zero.

However, this is not the case. Given the frequency of successful Ukrainian drone strikes, the penetration rate could be between 5 and 10 percent.

Reasons why Ukrainian drones perform better

There are two good reasons why Ukrainian drones can enter Russian airspace.

1. Remote control

2. Real-time ISR support from US/NATO ISR resources

Remote control

Drones such as the UJ-22 and A22 can be operated both remotely and autonomously.

During attack missions, the drones are remotely controlled, allowing for better radar avoidance and more precise target acquisition.

The most effective way to avoid radar detection is not through stealth design, but by flying lower than the radar horizon. To follow a more effective Nap-of-the-Earth (NOE) profile that minimizes the likelihood of radar detection, the Ukrainian drones visually avoid the terrain.

Cruise missiles such as the 3M-14 Kaliber and the Kh-101 can only fly in autonomous mode. To avoid collisions with the ground, they rely on a programmed flight profile that adjusts the cruise altitude to the expected terrain below.

Autonomous terrain avoidance requires accounting for navigation errors, so cruise missiles generally fly much higher than necessary to avoid terrain they could crash into if they go off course due to high winds or navigation errors. Cruise missiles are therefore more vulnerable to radar detection than larger, non-stealthy drones.

Remote control also allows the pilot to clearly identify the target and select the best method of attack (kamikaze or bombing), as well as the optimal final path and trajectory. The results can be spectacular compared to attacks with cruise missiles.

Real-time ISR support from US/NATO ISR resources

Another important reason for the better-than-expected penetration of Ukrainian drones is the real-time ISR support from US and NATO airborne ISR resources.

US/NATO aircraft such as the manned RC-135 and the unmanned RQ-4 Global Hawk and MQ-9 Reaper monitor the operation of Russian radars 24/7 from outside Russia’s borders. They can detect gaps in radar coverage, including gaps caused by scheduled maintenance and temporary outages.

Also, Russia is a huge country and its radar/air defense coverage is unlikely to be 100%. The large drones used for attacks have long range and can be routed to exploit the gaps.

The situational awareness provided by U.S. and NATO ISR resources not only facilitates safe route planning during mission planning, but also enables drone pilots to change their flight paths based on real-time data.

Russian countermeasures

Russia is currently developing measures to close the gaps in its air defense. One of the recently announced measures is the introduction of an anti-drone variant of the Yak-52M training aircraft.

The anti-drone variant, Yak-52B2, will be equipped with radar and new instrumentation, including a multifunction display in the rear cockpit. In addition to modernized navigation and flight equipment, it will have an electronic warfare system to suppress communication channels.

Yak-52B2 aircraft will likely be used to monitor Russian airspace, which is not adequately covered by air defenses. They will detect any low-flying drone using their onboard radar and disable it.

• Vijainder K Thakur is a retired IAF Jaguar pilot, author, software architect, entrepreneur and military analyst.
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