Fantasy Baseball: Nine players to bet on before the final month

Fantasy Baseball: Nine players to bet on before the final month

It’s time to get started.

Few trials left in the season’s calendar mean that big risks have to be taken. Yes, there is still time to make up ground in the race for your league’s championship, but to do so, your players will need to perform above average. Simply conforming to players’ usual expectations or strictly following their predictions will not be enough.

That’s why a player’s potential and track record are just as important as rankings or projections during this critical period of the MLB season. We need these rising stars — Marcell Ozuna and Kyle Bradish-types to steal the best examples of 2023 — to put us at the top.

Let’s identify the nine players I go all-in with on my fantasy teams. Each of them seems poised for a strong finish, so it’s smart to do whatever you can to add them to your league. That might mean trading the player if your league’s deadline hasn’t passed yet (like in custom leagues), picking him up if he’s available through free agency, or locking him into your starting lineup if you already have him.

Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves

The Braves have been hit hard by injuries and face the challenge of even securing a wild-card spot in the National League, which is why Olson’s performance is so important to their postseason chances. Fortunately, he has a history of excellent finishes: 56 of his 251 career home runs have come in September, with a career OPS of .901 that month, which is his best in a single month. Olsen’s recent improvement at bat also points to a strong finish to his 2024 season, as he has hit eight home runs in his last 23 games and is in the range of his career mark of .365 in that category with an expected wOBA of .352.

Bryan Woo, SP, Seattle Mariners

Woo has pitched brilliantly this season despite two stints on the injured list. He’s averaged 13.6 fantasy points in his 15 starts. Only 18 pitchers have averaged higher in at least as many starts. Woo’s absences have eased concerns about his seasonal workload — he pitched 131⅔ total innings last year, and 94⅔ this season — and he’s a key player in the Mariners’ hopes of reversing their recent decline in performance. He’s nearly as talented as fellow rotation players Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, even if his roster percentage pales in comparison.

Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

After a miserable start, Carroll has turned things around in his second season, posting a .563 slugging average with 12 home runs and seven stolen bases in 41 games since the start of July – good for 148 fantasy points, seventh-best among hitters. That will increase his trade price, but it’s also worth appreciating what Carroll has done and should do. Since July 1, his walk, contact, whiff and hard hit rates are all better than they will be in 2023, and his .222 BABIP says he’s actually been unlucky during the streak. He’ll play a crucial role for a burgeoning Diamondbacks offense down the stretch.

Edwin Diaz, RP, New York Mets

His first season after knee patella tendon surgery hasn’t gone quite as smoothly as his fantasy managers had hoped. He spent two weeks on the injured list in June with a right shoulder injury, and was suspended for 10 games a few weeks after his return. Since returning from suspension, however, Diaz has appeared to be on the right track. In 13 appearances, he’s converted 7 of 8 saves and has a 1.38 ERA and a 36.7% strikeout rate, thanks to a little more velocity on his fastball and stronger performance from his slider. The Mets remain a wild-card contender, and Diaz will play a big role in that, putting up numbers that could make him a contender for the best players at his position in the future.

Corey Seager, SS, Texas Rangers

Seager has really hit his stride lately, posting a .261/.316/.681 batting average with nine home runs and 18 RBIs in 17 games in August, but is that really that surprising? Seager is one of the game’s most notable late-season players, his 44 home runs in September being his best in a single month. In four of his last five Septembers, he’s hit at least six home runs with an OPS above .855. He also has a lifetime average of .254/.350/.508 with 19 home runs in 78 postseason games, including one NLCS and two World Series MVP awards, underscoring how much he’s saving his best batting numbers for last. Sure, the Rangers (33-1) are unlikely underdogs to reach this year’s postseason, but even so, Seager should finish the season on a high note.

Gavin Williams, SP, Cleveland Guardians

Signing Williams might be a bit of a stretch considering he missed the first three months of the season with elbow soreness and has averaged just 6.8 fantasy points in his nine starts since being activated. However, Williams could play a crucial role for the Guardians hoping to make the playoffs. Aside from two rocky outings with challenging opponents (Aug. 4 against the Baltimore Orioles; Aug. 16 at the Milwaukee Brewers), he has pitched effectively, his average fastball velocity has increased (96.8 mph, more than a full mph more than 2023), and he has posted whiff rates of 28% and 30% with his curveball and slider, respectively. Williams has the makings of a top spot in the rotation when it’s at its best, and among the lesser-known fantasy starters, he’s one of those I’m most likely to expect to finish the season strong.

Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox

A torn rib cartilage cost Casas nearly four months, but let’s not forget how optimistic fantasy managers were before his injury. Casas returned to play on Friday, hit his first home run since being activated on Tuesday and appears to be stuck in an everyday role again. He has earned both of the Red Sox’s two starts against a left-hander since his return and had an 86th percentile barrel rate and 80th percentile hard hit rate last season, along with some of the best hitting discipline in baseball. Casas is a closet candidate to hit 10 home runs and is a top-10 fantasy first baseman in the future.

Yusei Kikuchi, SP, Houston Astros

The Astros often manage to get the most out of their pitchers, and Kikuchi’s slight adjustments since joining the team suggest he could be one of the best additions of the deadline (even if he came with one of the deadline’s highest price tags). Kikuchi has added more spin to his fastball and brought in both his slider and changeup, which have historically been two of his best-performing pitches. Kikuchi has a 34.1% strikeout rate in his four starts for the Astros, thanks largely to his 34% usage of the slider, reminiscent of his second half in 2023 (27.6 K%, 3.39 ERA).

James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals

Wood is quietly developing into a fantasy superstar whose skills will be on full display in the final months of the season. If Wood had the requisite batting appearances, he would have a 99% hard hit rate and 80% barrel rate, according to Statcast, as well as well-above-average bat discipline and pure velocity metrics. In 29 games since the All-Star break, he has posted a .293/.380/.509 batting average, playing all but two innings during that time, and has already established himself as a strong force in the middle of the Nationals’ lineup. Wood is still available in more than 70% of ESPN leagues.

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