Key messages

• By September, area-level Crisis Situation (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in the most conflict-affected divisions of the Far North: Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Sava, and Mayo-Tsanaga. Insurgent activities have hampered agricultural and pastoral activities, limited seasonal work opportunities and wages, and resulted in sub-par harvests. Localized flooding in Logoneet-Chari in July and August further restricted access to food and income. During the lean peak season, many poor households are likely to sell producer goods to purchase staples as food prices are high. From October to January, seasonal improvements in food availability and access to the main crop are expected to enable improvements to the area-level Crisis Situation (IPC Phase 2). Poor households will use up their food stocks unusually early and will have to purchase most of their food with reduced farm incomes. High food and transport costs will further limit their ability to repay debts accumulated during the past years of conflict. Many poor households in the most insecure areas will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and a small proportion will likely enter Emergency (IPC Phase 4).
• Despite low and sporadic rainfall at the beginning of the May-September rainy season in northern Cameroon, rainfall has improved. According to CHIRPS rainfall data from the first decade of August, most areas in Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Danay, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Diamaré divisions received 105 to 145 percent of the average seasonal total rainfall. In the north of the country, peak season cultivation of sorghum, maize, millet, and pulses is underway, with most cereal crops currently in the reproductive phase. Overall, current crop conditions appear favorable despite below-average rainfall in the North Region. Information from key individuals suggests that farmers in certain areas have had to replant sorghum crops that had withered due to low and erratic rainfall earlier in the season. It is worth noting that the major constraint on agricultural production in Cameroon remains the conflict-related reduction in cultivated area. This decline is currently estimated at 20 to 30 percent in the far north.
• In the North West and South West regions, the main harvest of maize, beans, pulses, cassava and taro beans is already in the second month. Although harvests have been below average due to conflict-related declines in cropland, seasonal increases in food availability and farm incomes have temporarily improved access for households in relatively safer and more productive areas, allowing improvements in the Stressed Situation (IPC Phase 2) from July to September. However, in more remote and insecure areas such as Lebialem, Momo and Menchum, where production declines are expected to be larger, household food consumption remains low and many households are likely to continue to resort to coping strategies such as purchasing food on credit or selling remaining assets. Given early depletion of household stocks, rising food prices and low household purchasing power, the North West and South West regions are expected to face Area Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situations between October 2024 and January 2025. A small number of households in hard-to-reach areas that have been repeatedly displaced are likely to face emergency situations (IPC Phase 4).
• Since July, food prices have been stabilizing in most parts of Cameroon or declining in most rural markets. However, food prices remain 20 to 45 percent above the five-year national average and moderately higher than last year, reflecting increased import costs, increased fuel prices and transportation costs, and conflict-related disruptions to food supply chains. Despite government efforts to reduce wholesale prices for imported rice in April, retail prices have not fallen in any of the markets monitored by FEWS NET. As of mid-August, retail prices for imported rice were still 20 to 30 percent higher than in 2020. In the North West and South West regions, below-average harvests are leading to unusually high household demand and a decline in seasonal stocks, resulting in limited, typical seasonal price declines. In contrast, food prices in the Far North region have increased each month as the lean season progresses. Between July and mid-August, sorghum and corn prices rose by 7 to 10 percent, an increase of 17 to 20 percent over the previous year.
• Food assistance needs are likely to remain high even after the harvest, due to the combined impacts of ongoing conflict and insecurity, high food prices and seasonal flooding. Conflict- and flood-affected households are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity by January 2025. Although WFP and its partners plan to continue to provide life-saving emergency food and nutrition assistance to internally displaced persons (IDPs), hosts and refugees in Adamawa, East, Far, North, North West and South West regions, overall needs remain well above planned assistance levels. Due to limited resources, further reductions in recipients or ration sizes are likely. In May, 143,332 people in 10 of 13 divisions in the North West and South West regions received humanitarian food assistance, representing less than 10 percent of the total population of each division analyzed, and assistance levels remain insufficient to mitigate the impacts of the crisis (IPC Phase 3) at the area level.