Timberwolves minimum and maximum level prediction for the 2024-25 season
As mentioned at the beginning of the “Timberwolves’ Ceiling” section, the Western Conference is a grueling one. Given the difficulty of the Western Conference, there is a chance that no team will win more than 52 games. If that were the case, 45 or more wins would be considered a success. For example, just two years ago, the fourth-place Phoenix Suns finished 45-37.
If the defense drops, opposing teams improve, and injuries play a bigger role in the upcoming season, the Wolves are bound to see less success. A drop in defense is possible, but it doesn’t happen all that often. Among the top-ranked teams in terms of defense rating, only one in the last five years finished in the bottom half of the standings the following year.
Even though Minnesota doesn’t lead the league in defensive rating, it’s unlikely that the Wolves will fall out of the top half. It’s more likely that Minnesota will maintain a top ranking or slip to 5-10. With Gobert slated to start at center, the Wolves are almost guaranteed to have an excellent defense.
However, if the silver medalist is out, the Wolves’ defense will suffer. Minnesota has plenty of solid perimeter defenders but only has one player who can change the basket. Towns has improved defensively, but he’s not what you’d call a defensive anchor. In the Timberwolves’ most common lineup, including Towns without Gobert, they gave up 122 points per 100 possessions, ranking in the 21st percentile.
Of course, injuries can mess up the season (see the 2023-24 Memphis Grizzlies), but if Gobert is out for one time, it’s detrimental. Plus, the Frenchman is now 32 years old and has seen less playing time at the Olympics. If Gobert’s rocky Olympic performance carries over into the regular season, there’s reason for a regression.
In addition to Gobert, the Wolves start with Conley, who is entering his 18th professional season. Even though the veteran point guard isn’t reliant on his athleticism, he’s getting relatively weaker. Conley’s points per game have declined every season since 2020. He’s still a plus playmaker and a dazzling spot-up shooter, but advancing age correlates with a declining defense. If Conley’s playing time were to decrease, the Wolves would be without a veteran reserve football general.
With Edwards, Towns and Gobert on the roster, 45 wins should have been guaranteed. Unfortunately, we only saw the trio win 42. However, the Wolves missed nearly 30 games with Towns that season and began the season with D’Angelo Russell piloting the opening unit in place of Conley. Two years later, the Wolves have a strong culture, a huge talent pool and several young players who are getting better with time.
