Happy semifinal day to you and your family. Remember, this isn’t just about a place in the final. Tonight’s winners will secure their place in next year’s Concacaf Champions Cup. Let’s talk about it.

Columbus Crew vs Philadelphia Union
WATCH: Apple TV – MLS Season Pass | Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET | Viewability rating: 46/50

The Union does not have Tai Baribo.

It seems like any discussion about this team could end here. Baribo received a red card in Philly’s quarterfinal win over Mazatlán and now the Union faces one of the top two teams in MLS without the man who scored five of their nine goals in this tournament.

That’s just on offense. The Union are facing one of the best attacking teams in MLS history, and without their long-time No. 6 José Martinéz. They’re a team playing with their hands tied in their biggest game of the year.

In years past, that sounds like the kind of game the Union would win. They put a young player in both positions and watched him struggle while the rest of the team struggled, making the game as muddy as possible and forcing their way to a result that infuriated the other team’s fans.

This year, however, we had to throw out a lot of the narratives we’d grown accustomed to with this team. They weren’t stifling defensively, they didn’t beat up other teams for fun once they got going, and they didn’t have the same chaotic, mean attitude that made them a Daily Kickoff favorite (and one of the league’s least favorite teams, no matter who they played).

They’ll need to put on a top-notch performance tonight. Andre Blake needs to match what he did against Mazatlán, Union’s center backs need to be themselves again, and whoever replaces Baribo and Martinéz needs to play their best. Basically, Union needs to either create an ugly situation or find a way to do what most teams can’t: win a shootout against the Crew.

The good news, however, is that they have been here before. They have plenty of experience in big games. The bad news is that they have come up short in those big games, even when they have fielded their best players. For the Union to advance, tonight will have to be a night where some old stories are revived and a big one falls by the wayside.

LAFC vs Colorado Rapids
REGARD: **Apple TV – MLS Season Pass** | Wednesday, 10:00 p.m. ET | Viewability rating: 47/50

The Rapids are playing with the house money. Regardless of the outcome tonight, their run to the semifinals will have its place in club history. Beating four Liga MX teams in a row, including Club León, Toluca and Club América, is an absolute feat for any MLS team, let alone the team that entered the tournament as the second-lowest ranked team.

However, they also had some lucky moments. The wins against Toluca and Club América did not come from dominant performances. Toluca shot 22 times on goal, Colorado only four. Two of those shots went in for Colorado. Club América shot 20 times on goal, Colorado only seven. None of those 20 shots went in for América, and the Rapids advanced on penalties. These are impressive and solid results. They are not the sign of a team that has become a world-class team.

But there are no rules that say you can’t do the same trick three times in a row. And the Rapids are playing under knockout rules, even if LAFC is the better team tonight. They don’t have to be better. They just have to be good enough.

The question is, what approach should they take to be good enough to make it to penalties or even win? It’s very dangerous to sit deep against LAFC, but it could be even more dangerous to try and control the ball and get players forward. They are the most ruthless counter-attacking team in the league. If you give Denis Bouanga space – especially the Denis Bouanga who is emerging in the Leagues Cup – you’re going to get hurt.

Maybe the Rapids will at least try to get going early. An early goal could change the course of the game and force LAFC to play against the clock as well. At that point, Colorado could retreat into its shell and make a bet. LAFC may be able to score one goal in the remaining 90 minutes, but how about two?

That’s easier said than done, of course. The Rapids can’t just score a goal and call it a day. But it might be worth taking a few risks early on. On the other hand, one bad loss of possession (or a careless moment of defense on a goal kick) and suddenly Bouanga is behind and the game is over.

Watch closely how Chris Armas and his colleagues approach it. Then consider whether they have enough control of the game to actually pursue an approach. The Rapids face a lot of questions tonight. But what does one more upset matter?