The San Antonio Spurs’ quest for the Emirates NBA Cup (the award given to winning the season’s tournament) is an opportunity to showcase the development of young players in tough competition and earn a nice reward in the process. They are placed in Group B of the Western Conference, along with reigning season’s tournament champions, the Los Angeles Lakers, as well as the Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz.

There are six groups and the rules state that eight teams will advance to the knockout round. These are the teams with the best record in each group plus two wildcard teams. After that, the remaining four teams will advance to the semifinals and the final round in Las Vegas.

It won’t be easy for the Spurs to advance in the tournament, as this is likely Kevin Durant and LeBron James’ last chance to win something significant in the league. But the same motivations will also apply to Chris Paul, a 20-year veteran who plays in a starting role for the Spurs.

Let us predict how the path will continue for the silver and black team.

Against the Lakers on November 15

Former one-note wonder JJ Redick has a better team than Gregg Popovich, but he is not the better prepared man.

On offense, Chris Paul and Victor Wembanyama will provide coverage on two-man actions, pull up from distance and finish dunks from close range. Stephon Castle will also move well without the ball, exploiting backdoor and slot cuts and generating offense through forced turnovers. The Lakers’ weak perimeter defense will not stop Devin Vassell from destroying the defense on kickouts and transition plays.

Defensively, the Spurs can apply pressure with Castle all over the court. And the key is to limit the Lakers’ fast break opportunities. Last season, the Purple and Gold were third in that category.

James could get trigger-happy from distance, which would be devastating, but if he continues his usual offensive style at the basket, Wemby will be behind and challenge him and Anthony Davis’ shots.

The matchup to watch is the French Usurper versus the Brow. The former can’t match his strength, but his 8′ wingspan allows him to recover well from close range and force misses. If Wemby takes out the defender, Davis will have to rely on a questionable jump shot.

Final prediction: Spurs score the first bloodshed.

Against the Thunder on November 19

Expect Wembanyana to face off against opposite number Chet Holmgren, but otherwise this is a terrible matchup for the Spurs. The Thunder now have more muscle on the interior with Isaiah Hartenstein, who had the fifth-most offensive rebounds last season and was a pest defending the square for the New York Knicks.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets into the zone more often than any other guard and is tied with Luka Dončić for first place in free throw attempts (8.7). The Spurs also need to prevent Jalen Williams, a strong guard, from putting pressure on the zone.

On offense, Wembanyama will face one of Holmgren or Hartenstein, while the other will act as a weak shot blocker. He and Chris Paul will draw away corner defenders Vasell and Harrison Barnes.

San Antonio’s path to victory is to take care of the ball, stay down on SGA’s pump fakes, use long yardage, and get to the line often to slow down OKC’s transition attack.

Final prediction: Thunderclap against the Spurs.

At Jazz on 26 November

The priority is to slow down Lauri Markkanen’s shooting and long-range shots, as well as neutralize John Collins’ actions on the baseline. However, the Jazz could make things problematic by starting with a large lineup of two guards, Keyonte George and Collin Sexton, plus Markkanen, Taylor Hendricks and Collins. That lineup was their fourth-most used in the 2023-24 season, and it resulted in turnovers on 17.8% of opponents’ possessions, which is good for the 93rd percentile, according to Cleaning the Glass.

In addition, the Spurs will counter with blockades and tough defense to deny the Jazz further opportunities.

On the other hand, Paul will avoid losing the ball in passing lanes, but being older, slower and smaller, blitzes could cause him problems. However, the visitors should be able to force overreactions by swinging the ball and passing to Wembanyama, which frees up the 3-point line. The Jazz allowed the highest percentage (39.5) of opposing possessions last season.

Forecast: Spurs win clearly.

At the Suns on December 3

Mark this date in your calendars, as it will be Wembanyama’s first opportunity to get revenge on Durant and Devin Booker for the Olympic finals in which the US team defeated France. And considering how much Wembanyama admires the Slim Reaper (Durant), the young lad will make a statement like he did on January 4 against the Milwaukee Bucks in a narrow loss for the Spurs.

Don’t underestimate CP3’s determination to outdo his old team either.

This year, Phoenix will be captained by former Pop alum Mike Budenholzer. The Suns will field a respectable defense and the offense will have more movement and off-ball movement than under Frank Vogel.

The Spurs will target sharpshooters and make them lose the ball. Castle will be used to disrupt the lineup on offense. Additionally, forcing the Suns to make poor three-point shots will give the visitors more open court opportunities. When Tre Jones is on the court, his speed can be a deadly weapon if the pass hits him on the run.

Booker and KD will likely get everything they want at the elbows and baseline when they leave the block.

On offense, Barnes will be a heavy-hitting bully, scoring from close range against uneven opponents. Wemby will be shadowed by KD, as Jusuf Nurkić isn’t suited for all that outside work. However, getting into a shooting contest with Durant is a fool’s errand. Wemby will have more success in pick-and-roll sets. And with Slim on his back, he should be able to pull off moves like his post-up early in the gold medal game against Joel Embiid – pulling left and then finishing right off the glass.

A key to victory is getting Nurkić into foul trouble, and that’s possible. Last season he had the most personal fouls (254), played in 16 games with at least five penalty shots and was disqualified in six.

Forecast: Suns pull away from Spurs in a close game.

Final record in the group stage: Spurs end the season 2-2 and fail to progress. It will be better than last season’s tournament when Spurs failed to win in the group stages, but they are not quite ready to progress yet.