In the first half of the year, the British economy grew faster than many economists had thought possible for the whole of 2024.

Official figures show an increase of 0.6 percent in the second quarter and 0.7 percent in the first three months of the year. This means the growth rate exceeds the 1 percent mark that some analysts had said at the beginning of the year was the likely maximum growth rate.

Rachel Reeves would be pleased to know that the data shows some momentum. The Chancellor is currently preparing her first budget and hopes that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the Treasury’s independent forecaster, will examine the figures and conclude that her arrival at 11 Downing Street will bring with it a better economic outlook and thus higher tax revenues.

However, it is possible that we have merely seen a recovery from last year’s recession and that the strength of this recovery is not sufficient to improve the long-term outlook.

The figures for June confirm this. They show that growth has come to a standstill.

The fact that growth was zero in a single month should not be too worrying when there are so many one-off factors that can affect the outcome. Monthly figures can fluctuate, which is why the Office for National Statistics prefers to focus on quarterly data.

In this case, it could be a sign that consumers are financially exhausted and are either unable or unwilling to continue spending.

The services sector, which accounts for about three-quarters of economic activity, suffered a decline of 0.1 percent, due to a decline in sales in retail and wholesale trade.

This decline is unexpected because, given inflation figures and the level of wage increases, consumers should be in a strong position.

Inflation has fallen from a peak of 11.1% in October 2022 to 2% this year (before rising slightly to 2.2% in July), while wages have remained above 5%. Inflation-adjusted wages have been rising for nearly a year, putting more money in the pockets of average households.

In the UK, however, the government and the Bank of England focus on a measure of inflation that excludes housing costs. There is no room in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for rental inflation or the rise in mortgage costs.

With mortgage rates soaring for millions of people and rents rising at record levels, it seems bizarre that politicians think they have an idea of ​​how well the country is coping with inflation when key factors are ignored.

For many people, a broader measure of inflation, including housing costs, would have shown that they are more affected by inflation than the Consumer Price Index (CPI) suggests and that they have very little cash left.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has also shown that inflation rose significantly more among low- and middle-income people at the height of the cost-of-living crisis, preventing them from increasing their purchasing power in 2022 and 2023 and driving many even deeper into debt.

That means the next six months could be tougher than the first. And June could be a harbinger, not a blip.