Can Martin Truex Jr. take the farewell win in his final full-time season in the NASCAR Cup Series?

In the aftermath of the NASCAR Cup Series race at Richmond Raceway, little was realized how quickly things had changed for Truex.

Truex, who led more than half the laps in Richmond’s first race of the season, was one of the favorites to win the return match at the short track in Virginia.

Instead, Truex and the No. 19 team experienced their nightmare scenario. An engine failure forced Truex to retire from the race after 250 laps, relegating him to last place. To make matters worse, the race ended with Austin Dillon, a new winner, taking the checkered flag. Dillon’s victory delayed Truex, who is still winless in 2024, from securing a postseason spot in points.

But the story didn’t end there. On August 14, NASCAR punished Dillon for his reckless driving by stripping him of his playoff eligibility. That decision reset the playoff grid to 12 eligible winners with three races to go, meaning at least one driver would make the playoffs on points. At the next race at Michigan International Speedway, Truex had a 60-point lead over his teammate at Joe Gibbs Racing, Ty Gibbs, the second-most winless driver.

Michigan International Speedway provided another twist in Truex’s quest to make the playoffs. The No. 19 was fast when the rain-delayed race resumed on Monday (Aug. 19). Truex led a total of 28 laps and appeared to be on his way to a top-five finish.

But with seven laps to go, he went off track at Turn 4 and hit the wall, prompting the yellow flag to be waved. He sluggishly finished in 24th place, a result that was not particularly indicative of his performance.

Despite the disappointing ending, Truex’s place in the playoffs finally seems secure. Tyler Reddick’s victory gave a winless driver a second chance at the postseason. Although Truex’s lead over Gibbs has shrunk to 38 points, he still leads Chris Buescher, the next winless driver, by 61 points. Even in the unlikely event that Dillon’s penalty is lifted this week, Truex still has the upper hand in the battle for the final playoff spots.

After announcing his retirement from full-time racing after this year, this is Truex’s last chance to win another Cup Series championship. He was one of the all-time best drivers in the elimination playoffs, winning the title in 2017 and competing in the championship round five times.

On the other hand, Truex hasn’t won a race in over a year and will carry relatively few playoff points into the postseason. If he wants to compete for the championship, he’ll need to recapture some of his old playoff magic.

Perhaps the bigger question for Truex is whether he can score one last win before the season ends. Over the past 10 years, NASCAR has seen some legendary drivers retire from competing in the Cup Series. Most of them didn’t compete for the championship in their final full-time season, but some of them did win races.

Jeff Gordon performed the best of these drivers in 2015, delivering a strong postseason performance that culminated in his 93rd and final win at Martinsville Speedway. That win catapulted Gordon into the championship race, and although he didn’t win his fifth title, he continued the “Drive for Five” until his final race in the No. 24 car.

In subsequent years, Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth also won races in their final full-time seasons. Stewart scored a thrilling win at Sonoma Raceway in 2016, the 49th of his career. Despite being passed by Denny Hamlin on the final lap, Stewart regained the lead in the final turn to take his first Cup Series win in three years.

Kenseth earned his 39th and final victory at Phoenix Raceway in 2017 after a late-race battle with Chase Elliott. The win was an emotional one for Kenseth, as his future in NASCAR was uncertain and he had just one more race left with Joe Gibbs Racing.

However, none of the drivers who followed Gordon, Stewart and Kenseth into retirement experienced that memorable final victory. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Truex’s former mentor, had a great farewell in 2017 but failed to win a race that season. Jimmie Johnson ended his full-time career in NASCAR after the 2020 season and went winless in points-paying races in his final three years. Kasey Kahne failed to make a final trip to victory lane in 2018, nor did Clint Bowyer in 2020 and Ryan Newman in 2021.

Kurt Busch won a race in his final season, although injuries unfortunately ended his racing career earlier than planned. Even Kevin Harvick, who drove his final Cup Series season last year, failed to score a win in 2022 despite two wins. A Truex win in the next 12 races is not impossible, but it would buck the recent trend.

As the playoffs begin, Truex will be strong at several of the remaining tracks. He is usually fast at Darlington Raceway, although crashes and mechanical failures have plagued him there in recent years. At Kansas Speedway, he has nine top-10 finishes in the last 10 races, a streak broken only by an early crash in last year’s playoff race.

Truex has also won at Phoenix, Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway. But his best chance for one final win may be at Martinsville, where he has won three times and JGR has taken home plenty of grandfather clocks. Perhaps Truex will emulate Kenseth and win his second-to-last race as a full-time competitor.

But even if Truex can’t score another win or seriously challenge for the championship, hopefully his final season won’t be lost in the inevitable shuffle of postseason drama. Truex faced many challenges on his way to becoming a Cup Series contender and made the most of every opportunity he got.

Truex deserves recognition for his great career and his dominant performance in the 2017 championship. With the playoffs in his sights, he has 12 more chances to make career history and increase his total wins from 34 to 35.