The Globe obtained another gleeful email from Gov. Gavin Newsom’s PR people, still claiming that fast-food jobs are growing in California – even though a $20-an-hour wage will take effect in April 2024.

In June, the Globe reported that California had lost nearly 10,000 fast-food jobs since the new $20 minimum wage for fast-food workers first went into effect late last year, according to the California Business and Industrial Alliance (CABIA).

CABIA cited data and a report from Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. This article apparently displeased the governor’s office. We received an email from Brandon Richards (he/him), deputy communications director in Governor Gavin Newsom’s office, requesting a retraction or correction, claiming that the state has created jobs in the fast-food sector since implementing the $20-an-hour minimum wage.

Interestingly, their PR tactic is to perpetuate the lie and falsify and manipulate data, even in the face of the fact that more and more fast-food restaurants in California are closing, cutting staff, introducing more automation, and eliminating overtime.

Instead of just taking my word for it or trusting your own lying eyes, the Globe spoke with economist Rebekah Paxton to get her analysis of Governor Newsom’s claims.

Paxton, who holds advanced degrees in economics and political science from Boston University, is director of research at the Employment Policies Institute.

Here is the latest fairy tale from Brandon Richards (He/Him):

I wanted to check in because you wrote previously about the number of fast food jobs in California, and I wanted to make sure you saw that. In July, the $20-an-hour minimum wage was in effect for the fourth month, and California recorded job growth for the fourth consecutive month. – that means seven months of employment growth in this sector in a row this year!

In fact, California’s fast-food industry is experiencing higher employment than ever before.

• Employment growth when considering September 2023 – July 2024
  • When Governor Newsom signed the law on last month’s data
• Employment growth every month from January 2024 to July 2024
  • In each month of this year up to and including the entry into force of the law
• Employment growth when considering March 2024 to July 2024
  • The last month before the law comes into force and the first three months of the law’s validity.
• Employment growth when considering April 2023 to April 2024
  • Year after year, no discouragement in the face of the entry into force of the new law (April 2024)
• Employment growth if you look at it from July 2023 to July 2024
  • Year after year, California’s industry continues to grow

All this comes despite early and misguided criticism from a corporate trade group that appeared to be trying to disseminate outdated data for political reasons – and that was rightly called out.

For your convenience, I have included the BLS data chart below.

I look forward to your continued reporting and to a more accurate portrayal of the current situation than what has been written in the past.

Have a nice weekend,

Brandon

BRANDON RICHARDS (He/Him)

Deputy Director for Rapid Response

As Rebekah Paxton told us in June, “Newsom is twisting the truth to obscure the obvious: His fast-food minimum wage hike was a disaster. Thousands of workers have lost their jobs, hours are being cut, and restaurants are closing at an alarming rate. The public is not being fooled by Newsom’s statistical manipulations.”

This still applies today.

“He’s using the unadjusted dataset,” Paxton said in an interview with the Globe on Tuesday. “Last time, he went after other groups that had used it. But as of January 2024, California still lost 3,000 fast-food jobs in July.”

The fast-food industry has seen the highest number of job losses in history due to the increase in the minimum wage to $20 an hour. And the governor and his PR staff don’t seem to care that people are losing their jobs – they prefer to blame minimum wage earners and claim that the number of fast-food jobs has increased.

“They’re picking different time periods here,” Paxton said, “and the administration’s statistics don’t stand up to that.”

Paxton said the September 2023 to July 2024 time frame was a very long one and arbitrary, since the bill was signed in September. But it wasn’t until January 2024 that headlines began to appear saying fast-food companies would begin layoffs and job cuts to prepare for the minimum wage increase to $20 an hour that would take effect in April 2024.

In fact, on December 26, 2023, the Globe reported: “Pizza Hut lays off over 1,200 drivers in California before new $20 minimum wage takes effect.”

Even for the period from March 2024 to July 2024, about half of the data on job cuts is missing, according to Paxton, because the job cuts began in January 2024, before implementation in April 2024.

“The BLS statistics show that fast food jobs were lost 6 out of 7 months,” Paxton said. “The net numbers show that from January to today, 3,000 fast food jobs were lost in California.”

1. In California, there were job losses in the fast-food industry in 6 out of 7 months this yearin the period since January 2024

2. Since January 2024, nearly 3,000 jobs have still been lost in California:

3. Looking at year-over-year job growth in the fast food industry for April (Apr. 2023-2024), California had the lowest annual job growth (0.7%) since the Great Recession (excluding COVID losses in 2020).

4. If you postpone this year-on-year analysis to the last month (July 2023-July 2024), annual employment growth in the fast-food sector fell further to just 0.5% in Julyand July year-over-year growth remains at its lowest level since the Great Recession in 2024.

In addition, an EPI survey suggests that these changes will be permanent if the fast-food minimum wage law remains in effect.

EPI reports:

National labor market data shows that California’s fast-food industry has been experiencing massive job losses for months – but how does the Golden State compare to its western neighbors?

A look at the data for Oregon and Nevada, the only West Coast states for which industry-level data for the fast-food industry was available, shows that the trend of job cuts in the fast-food industry does not affect other states and is more related to the aggressive $20 wage increase (in addition to California’s already extensive labor protections).

“The latest seasonally adjusted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that in Oregon and Nevada – the two states for which data was available – the number of fast-food jobs has increased since January. During the same period, California has lost jobs in the industry every month.”