The 125 employers who responded to the group’s latest annual health strategy survey projected that their health care costs would rise by about 7.8 percent in 2025 (before plan design changes), compared to 7.2 percent this year and 6.6 percent in 2023.

Employers hope that the actual increase in health care costs can be limited to 6.6 percent through changes in tariff structures.

About 57% of the 118 employer benefits decision makers who answered a question about cost drivers ranked GLP-1 agonist spending as “a large or very large driver of healthcare costs,” and GLP-1 agonists topped the list of cost drivers in 2024.

In second place are other cost-intensive therapies, which are classified as major cost drivers by 46 percent of participants.

Less than 10% blame rising costs on health care fragmentation, fraud, waste, abuse or poor provider quality.

The background

The Business Group on Health’s cost increase forecast through 2025 is comparable with the results of other forecasters.

The International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans and PwC forecast an 8% increase and Aon forecasts a 9% increase.

Some groups cite catastrophic health problems as a reason for the cost increases.

What it means

Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have made the high cost of prescription drugs one of their campaign issues, and drug prices could become an increasingly hot topic next year.

Harris’ economic plan includes statements about “pharmaceutical companies blocking competition” and “pharmaceutical middlemen who reduce the profits of small pharmacies and raise costs for consumers.”

This could be a year in which benefits managers and benefits brokers need to focus on developing creative ideas to reduce prescription costs.