As Colorado River states face water cuts, they struggle to agree on longer-term plans – Associated Press
The Colorado River in the upper basin is seen in Lees Ferry, Arizona, on May 29, 2021.
The federal government is expected to soon announce water cuts that would affect some of the 40 million people who depend on the Colorado River, the hydroelectric powerhouse of the Western U.S. The Interior Department announces water availability for the coming year months in advance so Western cities, farmers and others can plan.
Behind the scenes, however, much more difficult plans are being hatched: for example, how the basin will divide the waters of the 2,334-kilometer-long, shrinking river after 2026, when many of the current policies governing it expire.
The Colorado River provides water to seven western states, more than two dozen Native American tribes, and two states in Mexico. It also irrigates millions of acres of farmland in the American West and generates hydroelectric power used throughout the region. Years of overuse combined with rising temperatures and drought have resulted in the Colorado carrying less water today than in decades past.
This has temporarily led the delicate water policies in the West to a dead end. Here you can find out everything you need to know about the negotiations surrounding the river.
What are the states discussing?
Plans for allocating Colorado River water after 2026. A series of overlapping agreements, court decisions and contracts determine how the river will be divided. Some of these contracts expire at the end of 2025.
After years of drought, the seven U.S. states in the basin – Arizona, Nevada, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming – and the federal government adopted rules in 2007 to better respond to declining water levels in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the river’s two main reservoirs that channel and store Colorado River water, generate hydroelectric power and serve as a barometer of the river’s health.
The 2007 rules set when some states can expect water cuts based on Lake Mead’s water levels, so states, Native American tribes and others are drafting new plans that call for even greater water cuts after 2026 based on projections of the river’s flow and climate models of future warming in the West.
“The real problem is that river basin runoff is decreasing because of the warming climate,” said Jack Schmidt, a professor of watershed science at Utah State University and director of the Center for Colorado River Studies. “The immediate problem is that we need to reduce our consumption.”
How do these talks differ from the cuts expected this month?
Sometime this month, the federal government will announce water cuts for 2025 based on Lake Mead’s water levels. The cuts could simply maintain the restrictions already in place. The cleanup measures take into account factors such as rainfall, runoff and water use to model what the two reservoirs’ water levels will look like over the next two years. If Lake Mead falls below a certain level, Arizona, California, Nevada and Mexico will be affected by cuts, though California has so far been spared because of its priority water rights.
In recent years, Arizona has been hit hardest by these cuts, and Mexico and Nevada have also seen cuts. But these are short-term plans, and policies are being renegotiated for the future.
What are countries already doing to save water?
Arizona, Nevada and Mexico faced federal water cuts to the river in 2022. Those were tightened in 2023 and brought back to 2022 levels this year. As the crisis on the river deepened, Arizona, California and Nevada agreed last year to save an additional 3 million acre-feet of water by 2026, with the U.S. government paying water districts and other users for much of those savings.
Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming – the so-called Upper Basin states – do not use the entire 7.5 million acre-feet of water allocated to them from the river, but receive only a percentage of the available water each year.
One acre-foot is enough to supply water to about two to three U.S. households annually.
Have these efforts been successful?
Yes, for now. A wet 2023, as well as conservation efforts by Lower Basin states, have improved the near-term outlook for both reservoirs. Lake Powell is about 39% full, while Mead is about 33% full.
Climate scientists and hydrologists say higher temperatures caused by climate change will further reduce Colorado River flow in coming years and lead to greater water loss through evaporation, so future plans should be prepared for less water in the system. Brad Udall, a senior water and climate scientist at Colorado State University, said predicting rainfall amounts is more difficult.
The short-term recovery in the Colorado River basin must be viewed in the context of a more difficult future, he added.
“I want to strongly oppose the notion that our recovery here over the last few years is a permanent change,” Udall said.
What can the states not agree on?
What to do after 2026. In March, Upper and Lower Basin states, tribes and environmental groups released plans for how the river and its reservoirs will be managed in the future.
Arizona, California and Nevada called on the federal government to take a more comprehensive look at river management, considering the water levels of seven reservoirs rather than just Lake Powell and Lake Mead to determine the extent of water cuts. If the entire system’s capacity falls below 38%, their plan said, deeper cuts should be split evenly between the Upper Basin and Mexico.
“We’re trying to find a right, equitable solution where the Upper Basin doesn’t have to bear the entire burden of long-term flow reduction, but we also can’t be the only ones protecting Lake Powell,” said Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources and the state’s chief negotiator in the talks.
Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming called for addressing the shortages based on the combined capacity of Lake Powell and Lake Mead, rather than just Lake Mead. They proposed more drastic cuts that would hit California, Arizona and Nevada sooner as the levels of the major reservoirs drop. Their plan does not include reducing the amount of water supplied to the Upper Basin states.
Becky Mitchell, the state negotiator for Colorado, said the Upper Basin plan focuses on policymaking related to the river’s water supply rather than demand for its water.
“It’s important that we recognize that there isn’t as much water available as people would like,” Mitchell said.
What happens from here?
The federal government is expected to issue a draft regulation by December that takes the various plans into account and suggests a path forward. Until then, states, tribes and other negotiators will continue to talk and try to reach an agreement.
