This view is sobering, but the next parliamentary election could well be less than 100 days away.

If the general perception is correct, we could be looking at a budget that can be given away on October 1. And if the coalition parties manage to simply scuttle all their assurances that this Dáil will serve its full term, a gallop across the country could follow sometime in early November.

When the Electoral Commission’s recommendations come into force, both Cork City constituencies will become five-seat constituencies. Whether the next general election takes place in the autumn or in the bleaker, gloomier days of March, we are in for some very interesting political days.

Cork South-Central will gain 12 constituencies, including Bishopstown, and after the election the constituency will wake up as the proud owner of five MPs, three of whom are likely to be brand new to the post.

Unless there are truly radical political changes between now and the election, it is safe to assume that Micheál Martin will be re-elected to the seat he has held since 1989.

Local politicians say privately that the general consensus is that he has done an excellent job as Taoiseach and is almost certain to come out on top in the election, probably even on the first ballot.

When The Echo When I accompanied Mr Martin on a campaign trail for Fianna Fáil European candidate Billy Kelleher in Douglas on the weekend before the June election, two things became very clear. Firstly, that Mr Martin absolutely loves the campaign trail, not least because he is very, very good at it. Secondly, that despite the obvious reservation that the Fianna Fáil press office chose the location of the campaign trail very carefully, Mr Martin is evidently extremely popular. This may be a given for a man about to begin his 40th year as an elected MP, but his popularity seems to have much more personal than party reasons.

Following Simon Coveney’s announcement in early July that he would not stand for re-election, The Echo called Mr. Martin for comment and received a very generous tribute, despite the fact that the two men have not always had the closest or most cordial relationship.

“We were political opponents and we represent two different parties, two different political traditions, but in Cork South-Central there has always been a tradition of switching sides, so to speak, or joining forces to represent the interests of Cork,” he said.

“I remember the late Toddy O’Sullivan, Pearse Wyse and others. There was a tradition of putting party positions aside and championing specific projects for Cork, whether it was investment in Cork Airport or Cork Port. These were issues on which we were always able to work together.”

In light of Mr Coveney’s announcement, and also in light of the fact that Leo Varadkar – who was both Mr Martin’s predecessor and successor as Taoiseach – had recently resigned as leader of Fine Gael (and later announced his own, not unexpected, intention not to stand for re-election), The Echo asked the Deputy Prime Minister if he himself was considering early retirement. Perhaps there was a glitch on the line, but he did not appear to hear the question. When the question was repeated, Mr Martin replied that of course he was running again and was very busy “preparing for the election.” After a pause, he added: “Whenever that will be.”

Whenever that may be, a second seat in Cork South-Central would be assured for Fianna Fáil, with the outgoing Michael McGrath likely to be replaced by his brother Seamus, leader of the Fianna Fáil group on Cork County Council.

He was first elected to the council 17 years ago and was re-elected at the local elections in June. He received the highest number of first-past-the-post votes of any local government candidate in the country, 5,191 in the Carrigaline local government constituency, more than 3,000 votes above the quota of 2,057 votes.

Lawyer and Cork City South-Central councillor Shane O’Callaghan is considered the favourite to succeed Simon Coveney, although some sources within Fine Gael claim that Carrigaline County Councillor Úna McCarthy could also be a candidate for the seat. Ms McCarthy, an able and popular councillor, was controversially placed on the electoral list last month for what the party claimed were geographical reasons.

Few would bet against Sinn Féin’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire not retaining his seat, and the highly successful lawyer would be a sure bet for a Cabinet post in any government involving Sinn Féin. Party sources declined to comment on whether and who the party might nominate as his running mate.

TO WIN

With this fifth seat up for grabs, former Lord Mayor Mick Finn has announced he will stand as an Independent, while the Labour Party has nominated first-time Councillor Laura Harmon and the Social Democrats will field first-time candidate Pádraig Rice. Dr Monica Peres Oikeh will stand for the Green Party in Cork South-Central.

Across the river, Cork North-Central has become a constituency that looks like Frankenstein’s monster, stretching from its heart in the north of the city and Glanmire to Ballincollig in the west and Mallow in the north-east.

The expansion will give the constituency 30,000 additional votes, including 22,000 in Ballincollig and 8,000 in Mallow.

Most politicians The Echo with whom I spoke this week was of the opinion that at least three of the constituency’s incumbent MPs would probably be in office at the next election.

Sinn Féin’s Thomas Gould, who rarely has time off and enjoys almost universal popularity, is certain to top the poll, while Fianna Fáil’s Pádraig O’Sullivan and newly appointed Minister of State Colm Burke saw their seats as safe.

As in the south, Sinn Féin sources were tight-lipped about the party’s electoral intentions regarding a vice-presidential candidate for Thomas Gould, admitting only that rather than holding an electoral conference, the party would “probably decide internally”.

Although the candidate for councillor is Garrett Kelleher, few would believe that Fine Gael has a chance of winning a second seat. However, within Fianna Fáil, some believe their party could have a chance.

Former Lord Mayor Colm Kelleher in Ballincollig and former First Citizen Tony Fitzgerald on the north side both feel they should be Pádraig O’Sullivan’s running mate, while Mallow-based District Councillor Gearoid Murphy appears to have little enthusiasm for the role, with Mallow believed unlikely to have enough votes to win a seat. It will be interesting to see how all this plays out at the FF Congress later this month.

The fourth seat in the now five-member constituency is likely to go to Cork City North West councillor Ken O’Flynn, who was re-elected in June with 3,134 votes against a quota of 1,984.

POLITICAL BATTLE FOR THE LAST SEAT

The fun is likely to be in the fifth seat. The consensus is that incumbent Solidarity MP Mick Barry will have the political fight of his life to retain his seat, a position the experienced campaigner may secretly relish.

Oliver Moran will stand for the Greens, while Ciarán McCarthy will represent the Social Democrats.

John Maher is likely to stand for the Labour Party.

It does not seem impossible that some more right-wing candidates will stand in the general election. Ross Lahive of The Irish People received 724 first-past-the-post votes in the Cork City North West local elections, narrowly losing the last seat to Solidarity’s Brian McCarthy, who won thanks to defections from Sinn Féin’s Mick Nugent.

After the dust settled, Sinn Féin muttered that if they had only fielded two candidates, it would probably have cost McCarthy his seat, as there would have been no changes. We will never know, of course.

Even if there are actually only 100 days or less left until the next election, there is still enough time for more candidates to announce their candidacies. The Echo will cover all the twists and turns between now and then.

Whenever that is.