The US State Department warned Pakistan of the risk of imposing sanctions on its missile suppliers following the recent visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. The visit ended on Wednesday, April 24, 2024. In April, both the United Kingdom and the United States imposed new sanctions on Iran following its aggressive attack on Israel. However, these sanctions were relatively limited and did not achieve any significant success. During President Raisi’s visit, two bilateral trade agreements were concluded to increase trade from two billion to ten billion over the next five years. However, the imposition of sanctions attributed to Iran’s global reputation could potentially jeopardize these agreements. The timing of the sanctions is unfortunate for Pakistan given its ongoing economic problems and its attempts to obtain financial support from allies such as Saudi Arabia and the United States, two countries that are rivals of Iran.

According to Kamran Bokhari, senior director of the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington DC, “These two countries are engaged in their own rivalries and Iran is currently on the rise due to the situation in the Middle East.” Bokhari also stated that Pakistan is not in a position to be drawn into a conflict between the United States and Iran. Vedant Patel, a spokesman for the deputy State Department, warned: “We will continue to disrupt and take action… on weapons of mass destruction… wherever they appear. We advise anyone considering doing business with Iran to be aware of the potential risk of sanctions.”

During President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Pakistan, the two countries attempted to repair their relations after tensions rose following Iran’s attack on armed groups’ bases in Pakistan. This militant attack triggered a chain reaction by Pakistan when it bombed armed groups’ hideouts in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province less than 48 hours later. Instead of trying to contain the violence and resolve this conflict through non-combatant means, these two acts of violence have harmed both countries, especially Iran, where missiles hit a village, killing innocent civilians.

Washington DC has been working to limit Iran’s oil and petroleum revenues for decades. In addition, it has imposed sanctions on hundreds of companies and individuals in Iran, including government officials and the Central Bank. These measures target those accused of providing financial support to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and armed groups such as Hamas in Palestine. Following President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said the two countries had agreed to cooperate in the energy sector. This includes trade in electricity and the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, which has been stalled for over a decade due to political instability and international sanctions. Iran claims it has already spent two billion on building the pipeline, but the project has not been started by the Pakistani side due to fear of US sanctions. Last month, Pakistan said it plans to ask the United States for a waiver to build the gas pipeline. Since Pakistani banks are reluctant to do business with Iranian banks, the expansion of formal trade and banking activities between the two countries will be slow. Moreover, most business activities with Iran result in sanctions from the US.

The complex armed conflict between Pakistan and Iran is significant, and the future of their relations depends on Pakistan’s ability to leverage the limited leverage it has over Iran thanks to its energy exports such as gas. President Raisi’s visit to Pakistan last week was significant as he was the first Iranian president to visit a country in South Asia in eight years. The president’s visit suggests the potential for peace and cooperation between these countries in the future, rather than violence. Raisi’s visit also promised greater security and economic accommodation with Iran and hinted at prospects for improved relations with Pakistan.