With training camp now complete and the Baltimore Ravens officially in the home stretch before the regular season, new record predictions are being released every day for Baltimore and every other NFL team.

However, predicting records is anything but easy. There are so many variables to consider that even if most are certain where they will finish, there is still a chance the season could take a wild turn.

To mitigate this problem, ESPN used its Football Power Index (FPI) to predict each team’s upper and lower limits for the upcoming season, which is usually about five games apart.

Unsurprisingly, Baltimore landed as one of the highest-rated teams, with a high of 13-4 and a low of 8-9. ESPN also listed each team’s biggest X-factor, and Baltimore’s is, you guessed it, the revamped offensive line.

“The Ravens have chosen to rejuvenate their offensive line by signing guards Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson elsewhere and trading right tackle Morgan Moses to the Jets,” writes ESPN’s Jamison Hensley. “The three new front-line starters – Baltimore has not officially named them yet – will have a big impact, especially in pass defense. When Lamar Jackson has been sacked four or more times in his career, Baltimore is 8-9 (.470). When Jackson has been sacked three or fewer times, the Ravens are 50-10 (.833).”

It’s a simple equation, really. If Jackson stays healthy and upright, the Ravens win. If not, they lose.

Baltimore fans saw this exact scenario in 2021 and 2022. Jackson missed the final five games of each season, and the Ravens’ offense collapsed without him. They finished the 2021 season 8-9 after losing their final six games, and although they made the playoffs in 2022 with a record of 10-7, it was clear they weren’t going to win without their star quarterback.

Compare that to last season, when Jackson stayed completely healthy, led the Ravens to a league record of 13-4, and won his second MVP award. He’s simply a game-changer when he’s on the field, but of course he can’t do his job effectively if the big men up front don’t hold up their end of the bargain.

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