Heading into NASCAR’s penultimate regular-season race at Daytona, Harrison Burton was 34th among his full-time Cup competitors — way down the field — in the point standings. After a tough battle between him and seasoned Cup veteran Kyle Busch, Burton was just ahead as they crossed the finish line with the checkered flag flying, etching his name in the history books. That win also secured Burton a permanent, guaranteed spot in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Playoffs and has completely changed the battle for the last of the guaranteed spots at next Sunday’s regular-season finale in Darlington.

Not long ago, that wouldn’t have been possible because NASCAR had a top-30 rule in place until after the 2022 season. No driver below 30th in the points standings could fight his way into the playoffs, so Burton’s win wouldn’t have counted. But times have changed.

Harrison Burton, Wood Brothers Racing, DEX Imaging Ford Mustang

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

13 spots are now up for grabs, while Martin Truex Jr. and Ty Gibbs have a fairly comfortable points lead. Chris Buescher is in 16th and last place, but with a 21-point lead over Bubba Wallace, he just needs to have a decent day at Darlington and he should be safe – as long as there is no new winner.

Burton’s win essentially broke the points battle for that bubble. Had a driver like Christopher Bell been able to pull off the win at Daytona, the points battle would be much tighter now. Wallace would be the 16th-place driver and have a six-point lead over Ross Chastain. Instead, both drivers face a situation where they likely need to win the Southern 500. These are two drivers who made the playoffs last year, and the last time Chastain wasn’t part of the postseason fight was 2021.

Bubba Wallace calls playoff dilemma “unacceptable”

“One car is fighting for the regular season championship and another car is close to the finish line. That’s unacceptable,” Wallace said after the race in Daytona, referring to his teammate Tyler Reddick, who currently leads the points standings.

The 23XI Racing driver was obviously disappointed. Burton is the fourth driver under him to fight his way into the playoffs. It would have been five if Austin Dillon had not been stripped of his playoff eligibility. “I take all the weight on my shoulders. I should have won several times this year and I didn’t. We don’t even deserve to be here and we are. Next week we have to win. That’s all.”

Chastain may be the driver below the cut line most likely to challenge for a win at Darlington. Although the No. 1 was merely average at the historic track earlier this year, he has been a real threat in previous years, earning two top-five finishes in the last three Southern 500s and crashing while battling for victory in the 400-mile race there in early 2023.

Here’s a detailed look at how the bubble changed after Burton took the checkered flag: