Where are the hurricanes? Why the Atlantic is incredibly calm at the moment
Including the three storms swirling on Monday, there have been more storms in the Pacific than in the Atlantic so far this year, and that’s a bit of a surprise, meteorologists say.
What we know about the impact of climate change on hurricane strength
According to a recent study, climate change is likely to make hurricanes more intense and hit the East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States more frequently.
The 2024 hurricane season will be different than predicted – at least not yet.
So far this year, including the three storms taking place on Monday, there have been more storms in the Pacific than in the Atlantic, and that’s a bit of a surprise, according to meteorologists. Plus, the Atlantic has been eerily quiet over the past week or so, even though we’re approaching what is traditionally the busiest time of the season.
“It’s quiet out there,” Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University, told USA TODAY on Monday. “I certainly didn’t expect this in our latest seasonal forecast!”
“There has been no named storm since Ernesto disappeared on August 20,” he said, “and the National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting no further storm formations for the next seven days.”
Klotzbach said when we look at named storms (tropical storms, subtropical storms and hurricanes), the last time there was no named storm activity in the Atlantic was in 1997, from August 21 to September 2.
So what’s going on?
“The tropics in the Atlantic are broken – for now,” said Meteorologist Ryan Maue and added that developing storms near Africa face at least one problem: “Sea temperatures are far too cool at these latitudes to sustain a rainstorm.”
Hurricanes need warm ocean water to thrive, just as cars need fuel to run. And although the ocean is warm enough in many areas, storms are not currently developing there.
Klotzbach also said that some large-scale weather patterns favored the formation of storms, while others prevented them from forming.
Pacific 9, Atlantic 5
According to the National Hurricane Center, five named storms have formed in the Atlantic basin so far in 2024. These include three hurricanes (Beryl, Debby and Ernesto). Nine named storms have now formed in the eastern and central Pacific basins, including three hurricanes (Carlotta, Gilma and Hone).
This contradicts the experts’ predictions: all pre-season forecasts predicted a very active season in the Atlantic, and some predicted a “hyperactive” season – with up to 33 possible storms.
Meanwhile, NOAA’s 2024 Eastern Pacific hurricane forecast said a “below-normal season is most likely” (60% probability), while the probability of a near-normal season is 30% and that of an above-normal season is only 10%, according to NOAA’s preseason forecast released in May.
What is the forecast? “Too early to cancel the season”
“I think it’s too early to call off the season now,” Klotzbach said, adding that the latest model runs “are a lot more robust than they were this time a week ago.”
This means that activity in the Atlantic may soon increase.
The Pacific could calm down while the Atlantic warms: “Based on the three systems currently reported by the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, the basin appears to be calming down pretty quickly,” Klotzbach said. “There is little indication in the long-term forecasts that anything else is forming.”
