A by-election will be held in an undisclosed constituency in central Johor on September 28 following the death of United Malays National Organisation (UMNO)’s Datuk Sharifah Azizah Syed Zain. The Mahkota by-election is numerically insignificant for the UMNO-led state government. In the March 2022 state election, UMNO and Barisan Nasional (BN) won 40 of the 56 seats in the Johor assembly. However, a closer look shows that the campaign will have far-reaching consequences beyond Johor on a political and economic level.

Politically, the by-election will test the federal unity government’s complicated relationship with Malay-Muslim voters and its ability to challenge the popularity of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) in the community. A PN victory would reinforce the image that Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) and its Islamist partner, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), are on track to win the next general election with strong Malay-Muslim support. Economically, a strengthened PN could raise doubts about the future of the government’s key initiatives, including the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS SEZ), which has been touted as a game-changer on both sides of the Causeway.

Mahkota is a Malay-Muslim majority constituency; this community accounts for 54.5 percent of the electorate, followed by Chinese voters with 34.5 percent and Indian voters with 7.7 percent. BN lost Mahkota only once in 2018, when Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) Amanah narrowly won the seat with about 48 percent of the vote. In the snap state election in March 2022, BN narrowly reclaimed the seat in a four-way contest against PH, PN and Warisan. BN won about 45 percent of the valid votes, while PH received over 31 percent. PN came third with about 21 percent of the vote. In a head-to-head contest with BN, PN has a chance of winning by increasing its share of the Malay-Muslim vote. It could do this by targeting UMNO supporters who are still dissatisfied with the BN-PH partnership.

PH is likely to stick to its formula of maximising turnout from non-Malay voters. PH and the unity government need a convincing UMNO victory to curb the PN’s surge. However, an internal competition has emerged in Mahkota between UMNO and Amanah over which party legitimately represents the Malay-Muslim community in the unity government. Amanah has demanded that UMNO resign in Mahkota. A similar conflict is also looming in Selangor. To de-escalate the situation in Mahkota, Johor Democrat Action Party (DAP) chairman Liew Chin Tong said the party will stick to the incumbent principle, meaning BN is likely to field a candidate.

Bersatu is likely to be even more aggressive in trying to make Johor a frontline state ahead of the next election cycle. With a stronger and more aggressive PN in the state, the federal unity government’s recent focus on southern Johor to revive the economy could be disrupted.

This does not resolve PH’s broader dilemma of strengthening representation among Malay-Muslim voters. PH has an interest in a stronger UMNO; however, PH does not want UMNO to become so strong that it regroups with its partners in BN to challenge PH in the next general election. A win in Mahkota will certainly help strengthen UMNO’s most important role in the unity government, which is to give the government credibility among Malay-Muslim voters. However, a win may encourage some UMNO leaders to urge the party to abandon PH before the next general election. Incidentally, UMNO’s Kluang chairman and former Mahkota MP Datuk Jais Sarday has criticised the party’s relationship with DAP and the unity government.

The government in Johor is unique in that it was formed solely by the BN. After the November 2022 general election that formed the federal unity government, the PH continued to play the role of the official opposition in the state. Given the complicated relationship between the PH and UMNO at the state level, PH supporters may be tempted to stay out of the by-election contest, allowing the PN to pose strong competition or even win the seat.

While a PN victory would only increase the coalition’s seats from four to five, it would give new momentum to the PN and especially Bersatu, which unlike PAS does not control a state government. Bersatu is likely to be even more aggressive in making Johor a frontline state ahead of the next election cycle. With a stronger and more aggressive PN in the state, the federal unity government’s recent focus on southern Johor to revive the economy could be disrupted.

The PN leadership has remained largely silent on the government’s initiatives in southern Johor, namely the proposed JS-SEZ and the Forest City Special Financial Zone (SFZ). However, the PN is likely to pursue a Mahathir-style economic policy in Johor that is more isolationist. After all, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad is an adviser to the four PN state governments of Terengganu, Kelantan, Kedah and Perlis. Mahathir has been critical of developments in southern Johor and most recently criticised the Johor Bahru-Singapore RTS link. Although he does not hold an official position, Mahathir’s comments are often seen as the government’s response. His recent comments that Malaysia subsidises Singapore’s water supply forced the government to say it is reviewing the relevant agreements. The resurfacing of old bilateral disputes will thwart the government’s plans for the JS-SEZ and SFZ if not handled well.

Mahathir is not the only reason why a strengthened PN is bad news for the SEZ and the SEZ. PN chairman and Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s stronghold is in Pagoh in northern Johor. As prime minister, Muhyiddin launched the Pagoh SEZ in 2021. Strengthening the Pagoh SEZ was also part of the PN’s manifesto in the Johor state election in March 2022. Since the change of government in November 2022, not much has been heard about the Pagoh SEZ.

With months to go until the halfway point of the federal unity government’s term, the conduct of the PH and UMNO leadership after the Mahkota by-election will shed light on the longevity of the PH-BN partnership and the credibility of the JS-SEZ and the SFZ.

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