How long will the record-breaking rise in the price of gold last?

How long will the record-breaking rise in the price of gold last?

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The Global Precious Metals MMI (Monthly Metals Index) narrowly missed the sideways trend, losing just 0.01%. Precious metals prices have been subject to a number of swings in both directions, keeping the overall index firmly in a sideways trend. Gold prices continue to rise while other precious metals such as palladium and silver fall (price trends and updates are covered weekly in the MetalMiners newsletter). With gold prices hitting brand new highs, many are wondering how high prices will rise before they fall.

How long will the record-breaking rise in the price of gold last?

Precious metal prices: Palladium

Palladium prices continue to decline, following a long-term downtrend since July 17. Although prices experienced a brief upward momentum between July 25 and August 1, this upward movement proved to be short-lived. Falling demand for palladium in the automotive sector played a major role in the precious metal’s price declines in 2024.

palladium

Source: MetalMiner Insights, precious metal prices

In the coming months, palladium prices could face downward pressure due to a mix of stable supply levels and sluggish demand from the automotive sector. In addition, the use of platinum instead of palladium in industrial applications could put additional pressure on prices.

Platinum prices face pessimistic sentiment

Platinum prices, like other precious metals, have been falling month on month, breaking their previously stable trend. Concerns about a global economic slowdown and weaker demand from the automotive industry have driven prices down. In addition, increased platinum recycling has increased supply, which has further increased price pressure.

Platinum prices are likely to remain under downward pressure in the coming months. The market is likely to face ongoing challenges from weak industrial demand and the potential of a global economic recession that could further reduce consumption. Despite the ongoing supply deficit that could provide some support, overall sentiment suggests prices could remain at the lower end of the current range.

Silver price rises before stalling

Unlike other precious metal prices like gold, silver prices have been subject to a lot of volatility month-on-month, rising for a while before falling again. In early July, market confidence and some encouraging economic data caused silver prices to rise. But this rise did not last long. In late July, prices began to decline.

Silver is expected to see a more bearish sentiment in the near term. The market is expected to continue to be pressured by weak industrial demand and a possible global economic slowdown, despite the bullish sentiment due to supply constraints. Analysts believe that while silver prices could rise somewhat in the near term if the economic situation improves, it may be difficult to break significantly higher.

Precious metal prices: Gold

Of all the precious metal prices, gold proved to be the outlier month-on-month. Gold prices rose to all-time highs in July and August, when geopolitical tensions and economic instability converged. Predictions that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in response to weak inflation and rising unemployment drove gold prices above $2,483 an ounce in July, setting new records.

Gold, August 2024

Source: MetalMiner Insights, precious metal prices

At the beginning of August, the price of gold reached a new high of over $2,500 per ounce. This was triggered by worse-than-expected US labor market statistics and increasing geopolitical concerns, especially in the Middle East.

If the Fed does indeed decide to pursue a dovish monetary policy and cut interest rates later in 2024, analysts believe gold prices could remain stable and even reach new highs. Strong technical indicators, as well as economic and geopolitical uncertainty, suggest gold will continue to attract more investors. However, as markets react to upcoming data and global events, some turbulence is to be expected.

By Jennifer Kary

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