ATP US Open 1/64 finals

Shang – Bublik: August 26, 2024 5:00 p.m. CEST
H2H: 0-1

Juncheng Shang has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Winston-Salem, Shang withdrew from his round of 16 match against Sonego. Before that in Washington, Shang retired midway through his match against Rinderknech when he was leading 3-2. The Chinese player is clearly having some fitness issues. He also skipped the tournaments in Montreal and Cincinnati. So far this season, Shang has not achieved any notable results, but has remained consistent throughout the season, earning him a place in the top 100 of the rankings.

Alexander Bublik has lost three matches in a row. His last win was over a month ago at Wimbledon. His only competitive preparation tournament for the upcoming US Open was in Montreal, where he lost to Shelton in the first round. So far this season, Bublik has won the title in Montpellier. Otherwise, Alexander has not had any notable results, which caused him to fall out of the top 20. Last year in New York, Bublik lost to Thiem in straight sets in the first round.

Best bet

According to the bookies, Shang is the slight favorite in this match. Given his recent fitness issues, we believe Bublik should have been the favorite in this match. Shang has retired twice recently, so we are not sure if he will be fit for his opening match.

Apart from that, A win for Bublik is a worthwhile bet.

Value Bet/ best odds: Alexander Bublik wins @2.20 @bet365

Ugo Carabelli – Fritz: August 26, 2024 6:30 p.m. CEST
H2H: First meeting

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Santo Domingo, Ugo withdrew from his second round match. His last hard court match was earlier this month in Montreal, when he failed to qualify, losing to Duckworth in the first round of qualifying. His last win on hard court came in the Australian Open qualifying tournament. Ugo has never won a main draw hard court match at the main draw level. His last two US Open appearances ended in the qualifying tournament.

Taylor Fritz has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Cincinnati, Taylor lost his first round match to Nakashima as we predicted. Aside from winning the title in Delray Beach earlier this season, Fritz has had no notable results on the hard courts. Last year in New York, Taylor reached the quarterfinals where he lost to Djokovic in straight sets.

Best bet

According to the bookies, Taylor is the big favorite in this matchup. Ugo Carabelli is one of the worst, if not the worst, top 100 players on hard court. Even though Fritz is not at his best, he is still a much better hard court player than Ugo. We expect him to dominate from the start and win this match easily.

Apart from that, Fritz covering the handicap of the game is a worthwhile bet.

Value bet/best odds: Taylor Fritz -9.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365

Photo credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports