—by Matt Milkovich

Day 1 of the US Apple Association’s 2024 Outlook is over, and the first estimate for the 2024-25 crop is in: US production for the upcoming season will be about 282 million 42-pound bushels, about 2 percent less than last year but 5 percent more than the five-year average. “Big year nonetheless,” said Chris Gerlach, vice president of insights and analytics at USAPle.

The 2024-25 crop will have a producer value of more than $3.3 billion, most of it from fresh production, Gerlach said during the conference, held August 15-16 in Chicago.

The estimate is based on data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and USAPle. USAPle members will continue to refine the numbers at regional meetings and will release a final estimate at the end of the conference on August 16.

At the state level, Washington remains the nation’s largest producer with an estimated crop of about 179 million bushels, down 1 percent from 2023-24. New York is expected to reclaim second place with about 31 million bushels, up 4 percent from last season. Michigan, which has had two straight record-breaking years, is expected to decrease its production by 10 percent to about 29 million bushels. Pennsylvania will produce 12.1 million bushels, down 7.8 percent from last year. California will produce about 5.5 million bushels, down 4.2 percent. Virginia will produce 5.2 million bushels, up 4.3 percent. Oregon, rounding out the top seven apple states, will produce 3.6 million bushels, down 5.4 percent from last year.

Gala is expected to remain the most popular U.S. variety. Production totaled over 48 million bushels, representing about 17 percent of the U.S. apple market. Rounding out the top five are Red Delicious (35 million bushels), Granny Smith (28 million), Honeycrisp (28 million) and Fuji (27 million).

As for global supply, China will continue to dominate the world market, producing an estimated 2.1 billion bushels in 2024-25, up 2 percent from 2023-24. European production is expected to decline 11 percent to about 545 million bushels. South America is expected to decline 15 percent from last year, with production at about 116 million bushels. Mexico is expected to produce 43 million bushels, up 1 percent from 2023-24. Canada is expected to increase its production 7 percent to nearly 21 million bushels, Gerlach said.