To qualify for the postseason next spring, the Ottawa Senators will have to do a lot of things differently. One of them is to get off to a good start – something that has eluded them in recent years.

Schedules can sometimes have a big impact on whether a team has a head start early in the season, so how difficult is the schedule the Senators will face in October and November next season?

Senators must avoid a repeat of the 2023/24 season start

It goes without saying that the Senators cannot repeat their start to the 2023/24 season. By American Thanksgiving last year, they had played themselves out of the playoff race, winning only eight of the 17 games they played in October and November, resulting in a disappointing points percentage of 0.471 (PTS%).

In response, the team seemed to take a cue from Mad Magazine’s Alfred E. Neuman, asking, “What, I should be worried? After all, it was only November and there was still plenty of time to make up lost ground and secure a playoff spot.”

The problem was that they had already dug themselves into a deep hole at that point and needed to win an average of more than six of the ten remaining games to have a chance at a wild card spot. Despite all the hype at the start of last season, the Senators were still a long way from being a .600 hockey club.

Related: Why the Ottawa Senators’ 2023-24 season was a failure

No one is going to blame the Senators’ disastrous performance last season on the schedule that NHL planners imposed on them during the first two months of last season, but it certainly didn’t help.

The Senators lamented that there was no consistent rhythm to the schedule at the start of last season, playing only 17 games in the 48 days from Oct. 11 to Nov. 27, an average of about one game every three days — well below most teams’ preferred pace of one game every other day.

What made it worse, however, was that there were periods at the start of last season where the team had four or five days between games, giving them no chance to develop a pace for the season. On top of that, the Senators spent a week in Sweden playing two games as part of the 2023 NHL Global Series. Those were the only two games the team played in the nearly two weeks between November 12 and 23.

The Global Series was fun but a distraction. When the team returned to action in North America, they lost seven of their next ten games. This losing streak meant that a spot in the 2024 playoffs was too much to ask.

The Senators’ early schedule for 2024-25 is tough

The beginning of their schedule last season was a blast, but how challenging is this season’s schedule from opening night on October 10th through the end of November? During that time, the Senators will play 23 games, split evenly between home and away. That’s more than a quarter of their season, and by then fans will have a pretty good idea if their team is making the playoffs.

The Senators have nine games scheduled in October – five at home and four on the road. Three of the road games will be on a relaxed three-day tour of the Western Conference in late October. For the most part, they will have a game every other day.

Still, Ottawa’s October schedule will give their president of hockey operations and general manager (GM) Steve Staios sleepless nights, as five of the teams his team will face were 2024 playoff teams. Six of them are on a list of teams that will make the 2025 playoffs according to Las Vegas bookmakers. The list includes the Florida Panthers, Los Angeles Kings, New Jersey Devils, Tampa Bay Lightning, Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche.

Historically, wild card teams need to have a PTS% of around .600, meaning they need to win an average of six out of 10 games over the course of the season, so where can the Senators get six wins in October?

Here is my opinion:

October Opponent	Probability of a Senators victory
Montreal Canadiens, Utah Hockey Club, St. Louis Blues	High
Lightning, Golden Knights	50/50
Panthers, Kings, Devils, Avalanche	Low

If this table is correct, the Senators have three games in the bag in October and two they can win 1-0. That’s five games Ottawa could very well win, so they’ll have to steal a game from one or more of the Panthers, Kings, Devils or Avalanche to reach their .600 PTS% goal. That won’t be an easy task.

The schedule doesn’t get any easier in November. The Senators will play 14 games this month, including eight against teams that made the playoffs last season, including the Stanley Cup finalist Edmonton Oilers led by Connor McDavid. In addition, there are eight games in November against teams that Vegas bookies rate as playoff teams in 2025. Still, their schedule has a game roughly every other day in November, and all but two of the games will be played in the Eastern time zone.

How easy will it be for Ottawa to get eight or nine wins in November to stay on track for a .600 PTS%? That’s my take.

Opponents in November	Probability of a Senators victory
Seattle Kraken, New York Islanders, Philadelphia Flyers, Calgary Flames, San Jose Sharks	High
Buffalo Sabres, Golden Knights	50/50
Edmonton Oilers, Kings, Hurricanes, New York Rangers, Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks	Low

If the Senators beat all the teams they should beat – that is, win against the teams I think they have a good or even chance of winning – they would have seven games under their belt. That means they have to beat at least one of the seven teams I think they have a low chance of winning against. That seems doable, and if they can do that, they’ll be well on their way to a wild card spot next spring.

Can the Senators become a .600 hockey club?

There’s no question that the Senators need to post a .600 PTS% to secure a wildcard spot in the playoffs next spring. It’s not often that teams do that with much less. That will be a tall order for the Senators, who averaged just .442 PTS% over the last five full seasons they’ve played. Still, they’re an improved team this season and seem to have all the tools to compete for a wildcard spot.

One thing is certain, however: they have a tight schedule ahead of them at the beginning of the year, and it will therefore be difficult to get off to a successful start.