The Houston Rockets find themselves in one of the most unusual situations in the NBA. After winning just 22 games in the 2022-23 NBA season, they made a huge jump, going 41-41 last season and almost making the play-in tournament. Even after that big jump, Houston still landed the third pick in the first round in the 2024 NBA Draft, selecting Reed Sheppard from Kentucky.

Things are looking up for the Rockets right now. Sheppard had a spectacular NBA Summer League, showing his talent in both directions and showing he could be the favorite to win Rookie of the Year despite being considered a backup. Most of the team’s players are still early in their careers, so there is still room for development, and the veterans are still productive.

Given this background, Houston’s performance potential should be very high. However, the range between improvement and deterioration is larger than for most other teams.

The Rockets play in the tougher of the two conferences, and the West has only gotten better this offseason. While teams like the Warriors, Clippers, and Lakers have stagnated or waned, teams like the Pelicans, Kings, and Grizzlies have high hopes, perhaps even higher than the Rockets. This will be a challenge for Houston, as they hope to make another big jump from last season.

The expectations for Houston this season should be a mix of player development and playoff basketball. However, those two goals are at opposite ends of the spectrum mentioned earlier. If the West gets better as projected and the improvement isn’t as tremendous as projected, the Rockets’ pitch could be another lottery season, perhaps even a worse season than the last.

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