Ahead of Daytona, the points battle for the few remaining playoff spots is incredibly tight. Martin Truex Jr. enters the weekend in the safest position with a 77-point lead. His Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Ty Gibbs is in a good position with a 39-point lead, barring bad luck. But the battle between Chris Buescher, Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace is far from over. Buescher is only 16 points ahead, while Chastain is in 16th and final place, one point ahead of Wallace. These drivers will be chasing all the stage points at Daytona, desperate to avoid the inevitable carnage.

From Kyle Busch down, however, the goal is much simpler: win at all costs. While some may have a chance to win the Southern 500 at Darlington, many see Daytona as their only remaining chance to secure a spot in the 2024 playoffs. 17 drivers absolutely have to win, so let’s look at those most likely to pull off a dramatic last-minute victory on the 2.5-mile super-seedway.

Stenhouse Jr. may be the driver everyone should keep an eye on. His aggressive style has earned him two wins at the historic circuit, including last year’s Daytona 500, but it has also often ended in disaster. He has crashed four times in his last five starts at Daytona. The one time he didn’t, he was victorious. Whether he wins or not, the JTG driver will definitely play a role in this weekend’s showdown.

Watch: Stenhouse wins longest Daytona 500 in NASCAR history

A two-time Cup champion faces a winless season for the first time in his full-time Cup career. But this season has been an uphill battle for him and RCR. He has one win at Daytona, but that was in 2008. During his short time with RCR, he has shown he is strong on the superspeedways, narrowly missing out on winning last year’s Daytona 500. Since he is the most experienced and successful driver below the cut line, it would be foolish to bet against KB this weekend.

Kyle Busch, Richard Childress Racing, Cheddar’s Patriotic Chevrolet Camaro and Randall Burnett, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet Camaro

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

The 2021 Daytona 500 winner has always been a force to be reckoned with on slipstream tracks, crashing just moments before winning at Talladega earlier this year. McDowell is also a proven winner on the road courses, and his only chance to make the playoffs in back-to-back years is to capture the checkered flag again at Daytona.

Watch: Tyler Reddick takes victory at Talladega after last-second accident

Austin Dillon – Richard Childress Racing

Dillon might have been the most obvious choice if not for recent events. He earned his way into the 2022 playoffs with a win at Daytona and also won the 2018 Daytona 500. However, recent events at Richmond have made him something of a pariah in the garage, and at a place like Daytona, you don’t win without friends. It also doesn’t help that Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano are two of the most capable superspeedway racers in the field and both have a score to settle with the driver of the No. 3.

Watch: Austin Dillon takes the checkered flag after a collision and takes the lead

2024 has been a battle for the team owned by NASCAR legend Jimmie Johnson. Jones has a Cup win at Daytona and his only top-ten finish this year came in the Daytona 500, the season’s opening race. The fact that the Toyotas are outnumbered won’t help him. And with drivers like Gibbs and Wallace still in playoff danger, Jones may have to go his own way.

Erik Jones, LEGACY MOTOR CLUB, Family Dollar Toyota Camry

Photo by: Danny Hansen / NKP / Motorsport Images

There were two plane crashes during the 2024 season, and both were the fault of this driver. LaJoie is certainly not interested in scoring a hat trick at Daytona, but he will be motivated to prove he still belongs at the top of the sport after Spire Motorsports announced they will part ways with LaJoie at the end of the year. Over the course of his career, he has four top-fives and nine top-tens – every single one of which came on slipstreams. A fourth-place finish in this year’s 500 is his only finish above 11th in the 2024 season. For LaJoie, it’s now or never. If not to make the playoffs, then simply to save his career.

Corey LaJoie, Spire Motorsports, Schluter Systems Chevrolet Camaro

Photo by: David Rosenblum / NKP / Motorsport Images

Haley would be quite a surprise, as RWR has never won at the Cup level. But he did it. Despite the race being shortened due to rain, he won the 2017 summer Cup race at Daytona. In the Xfinity Series, he has been very successful in pack races. He has four Xfinity wins, including two at Daytona and two at Talladega. If anyone is going to drive a Rick Ware Racing car to Victory Lane, it’s Haley.

Watch: Justin Haley takes a win over his teammates in Daytona

While an argument can be made for any of the four SHR drivers outside of the playoffs, Gragson seems to be the best bet. His first top-five finish came at Daytona while running part of the Cup schedule in 2022. His only top-five finish of the 2024 season came at Talladega, where he tied his career-best third place finish. He earned his first Xfinity win at Daytona in 2020 and always seems to be up there in these superspeedway races. However, with SHR shutting down at the end of the year and all four drivers in the same must-win situation, teamwork likely won’t be a factor when the checkered flag is in sight.

Noah Gragson, Stewart-Haas Racing, Bass Pro Shops Winchester Ford Mustang

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

All other

Daytona loves surprises, so it’s entirely possible that a driver who blows up the standings not even mentioned in the list above could be a winner. There have been seven different winners in the last seven Daytona Cup races, and four of those were drivers who didn’t win anywhere during the season. As the battle for points continues, I’ll be keeping an eye on the 17 who will give it their all this weekend in hopes of pulling off a Daytona miracle.

The rest: Chase Briscoe, Todd Gilliland, Carson Hocevar, Josh Berry, Ryan Preece, Daniel Hemric, John-Hunter Nemechek, Zane Smith and Harrison Burton.