Leagues Cup mystery: If the number of spectators and the popularity were to rise or fall significantly in the second season of the tournament, but Lionel Messi wasn’t there to bless it, did it even really happen?

Don’t think about it too long. It’s a rhetorical question, albeit one that connects two important and certainly related points of contact. Messi was not present at this year’s Leagues Cup, conspicuous by his absence. And there’s little doubt that enthusiasm for the tournament, which pairs Major League Soccer teams with Liga MX clubs from Mexico, has waned this year.

We miss Messi and his unparalleled appeal, which sparked interest so happily a year ago when his debut as an Inter Miami player happened to fall in the opening stages of the tournament.

So the second edition of the tournament isn’t as much talk as it was a year ago, and highlights aren’t as popular on TV and YouTube. Average viewership has dropped slightly, though not to a worrying extent. But without the hype surrounding Messi and things like massive jersey sales to tout, it’s easier for observers to notice an abundance of empty seats in the MLS stadiums that hosted this second Leagues Cup.

Instead of asking “why” things are going in the wrong direction for an event with high hopes, investments and (obviously) benefits, there is probably a better question:

Did Messi’s performance last year raise expectations for 2024 a little too high?

Short answer: Probably.

Is this all a big problem? Short answer: probably not – at least not right now.

First, the facts: Attendance at last year’s Messi-led Leagues Cup averaged 17,252. With two games left in 2024, including a final that will likely draw well at Lower.com Field in Columbus, attendance will drop, but not significantly. (The 2024 average is currently 16,819.)

It would be nice to know the TV network numbers, but Apple TV keeps them carefully under wraps, so the “mood” mostly dictates the action. Media reactions have ranged from “Good games, but where’s the buzz?” to “Here’s how we can make it even better…” to “Should we just get rid of the damn thing?”

Here’s the more measured view: The Leagues Cup was always going to be a long process for MLS, a regional tournament that creates a structural, crucial overlap with Mexico’s popular Liga MX. That seems to be getting a little lost after the initial boost from Messi, a distraction from the reality that this was always going to be a long and winding road to true relevance. A road that, if we’re honest, is far from guaranteed.

The room for error seems small.

If you don’t understand how difficult it can be to start such a business, think for a moment about the failed American football leagues, which demonstrate time and again the challenges of not being “first to market,” especially when there is a market presence as dominant as the NFL. Or consider professional women’s soccer. The NWSL is marching steadily forward, but here it is the third attempt at a top-level women’s league, after the other two ceased operations before reaching a fourth season.

Here’s another reason why enthusiasm may have waned a bit this year — or another reason why last year’s first-year success was something of a mirage: This summer’s soccer calendar was packed to the brim. It included the 2024 Euros, the Copa America and two Olympic tournaments, led by a resurgent U.S. women’s team and its stirring march to gold.

While there’s no point in sneering at it, the Leagues Cup is far from perfect. There are some issues that deserve a thorough investigation. For example, it creates a dead zone for too many MLS teams. Clubs struggle with a busy schedule and player absences for much of a hot summer, but then… boom! An early exit from the Leagues Cup – 31 Liga MX or MLS clubs have been eliminated by the last kick in the round of 32 – can put a team inactive for up to three weeks. That’s a long time to disappear from fans’ minds, and far from ideal for player performance.

And more and more Liga MX teams are calling for some of those games to be moved to Mexico, especially given the weak presence in later rounds this year. So to fully reap the benefits of the tournament, some details still need to be ironed out, including added value in TV deals and sponsorships.

Any new league, tournament or sporting event that begins without any brand recognition is always a gamble, because its success or failure depends mercilessly on a multitude of variables, only some of which are actually within the control of those involved. Of course, strategic decisions, leadership and execution at the grassroots level will always be important. But even when boxes are checked across the board, timing and market conditions can always mess everything up.

If you still don’t see the value of affiliating with Liga MX, you may not have considered the huge Mexican soccer fan base in the United States and the huge potential for growing MLS by fostering more exposure and connections not only within that group, but throughout Mexico. Again, it’s a long process.

Like a player swap in sport, where none of us can really say who “won” until time comes, none of us can seriously claim success or failure in the Leagues Cup based on an all-too-predictable drop-off in performance in year two.

Let’s hope that Messi will be at the tournament next year. It will be much more exciting with him than without him.