Opportunity cost of Rogers trade already appears questionable for Elias and Orioles – Baltimore Positive WNST

Opportunity cost of Rogers trade already appears questionable for Elias and Orioles – Baltimore Positive WNST

BALTIMORE – The trade for left-hander Trevor Rogers was always made with the future of general manager Mike Elias and the Orioles in mind.

After all, you don’t sign a starting pitcher with a 4.53 ERA and other marginal stats that have been trending in the wrong direction for three years, believing he’ll suddenly be a deciding factor in winning a championship. Still, Rogers had posted a 3.17 ERA in his last nine starts in Miami and looked at least like an acceptable fifth starter while under the club’s control for two more years. The presumed vision was to make some subtle tweaks to help Rogers for the final stretch before going to work in the offseason and next spring to help him regain the form that made him an All-Star pitcher and runner-up in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2021.

It also became clear at the trade deadline that outsiders overvalued the talents traded to the Marlins – infielder Connor Norby and outfielder Kyle Stowers – to make the trade, based on the shocking reactions of some media and fans. In reality, Stowers, 26, is looking more and more like a Quad-A player than a true talent, while Norby, 24, was only recently recalled after a crash course learning how to play third base in Miami’s system, making his development rather uncertain. Time will tell for both, of course.

Meanwhile, even minimum expectations have not been met for Rogers, as he has allowed 15 earned runs, 25 hits and 10 walks over 19 innings and has 12 strikeouts in his first four starts. And although starters Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin have been sidelined with injuries since Rogers’ arrival, the Orioles sent the 26-year-old to Triple-A Norfolk on Thursday, signaling that they prefer Cade Povich and Cole Irvin — two left-handers who have already lost spots this season — in the rotation for now.

“That’s just our bullpen standing,” manager Brandon Hyde said Thursday afternoon of Rogers’ demotion. “We feel like we need reinforcements in the bullpen, some guys that can throw tonight. Cade is going to throw tomorrow, so we want Trevor to stay ready. We’ll see what happens here. We just want him to stay ready, and we’ll see how things play out over the next few weeks.”

Yes, the bullpen.

What had been a point of contention and concern all season turned into an utter disaster in August, as the Orioles entered Thursday ranked last in the major leagues in bullpen ERA (6.16) for the month. That Baltimore had to send Rogers to the minors for fresh bullpen players is ironic, considering many were clamoring for Elias to be more effective relief sellers at the trade deadline. Instead, the Orioles tried to get the controversial Craig Kimbrel back on track, all in an effort to reshape the Phillies bullpen in 2023 by signing right-hander Seranthony Dominguez and left-hander Gregory Soto, both of whom posted ERAs above 4.00 with their old club this season.

To be fair, Dominguez was very good before allowing home runs in his last three games — two of which were walk-off blasts against the New York Mets — meaning he shouldn’t be buried anytime soon. But Soto was a mess from the start and has rarely been trusted in a mid-level situation in recent weeks.

It’s clear that Norby and Stowers alone wouldn’t give the Orioles a top starting pitcher or an outstanding closer at the deadline, but could there have been another deal for a more reliable starter with less control over the team or a rock-solid reliever that would really help now?

For a club that has World Series aspirations this year, trading Rogers was always questionable due to opportunity cost, and in the present he has not been able to deliver even the bare minimum.

That doesn’t mean the Orioles can’t get Rogers back on his feet in the minors, though, as Hyde noted that the organization is “working out a plan” to help him in Norfolk. Perhaps he’ll still be a useful pitcher in the next few weeks and especially the next few seasons, which means we’re not making any final judgments here.

But sending Rogers to the minor leagues when five starting pitchers are already on the injured list certainly doesn’t make much of a case for the transfer, especially when you’re considering alternatives. That’s putting it kindly.

“He’s had some weird injuries. He’s had some lat injuries on both sides of his back. He’s missed some time because of that,” Elias said the day after the trade deadline. “He’s still young. He catches a lot of ground balls and throws from the left side. Both of those things have been a little lacking in our rotation. He’s got a couple years of control and youth and a really good pedigree, so we’re hoping for a comeback. But he fits our profile and meets the needs of our rotation.”

“I think he’s shown in the past that he has what it takes to be anywhere between number 3 and number 5, and we welcome any of those positions with open arms now.”

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