The student loan system is experiencing unprecedented chaos. And the future of student loan forgiveness and repayment relief will likely depend on key events in the next few months.

On the one hand, a number of new programs and initiatives from the Biden administration have resulted in very real, tangible relief for millions, including lower payments and student loan forgiveness. On the other hand, legal challenges and “extraordinary” court orders have upended much of the student loan repayment system and halted many debt forgiveness orders. The fate of many of these programs could ultimately be determined by the Supreme Court and the upcoming election in November.

Here’s what’s going on now and what borrowers need to know about student loan forgiveness in the final months of 2024.

The Biden administration has approved $169 billion in student loan forgiveness since 2021

Despite numerous legal battles, a defeat in the Supreme Court and a divided Congress, the Biden-Harris administration has succeeded in securing nearly $170 billion in student loan forgiveness for nearly five million borrowers since President Joe Biden took office in 2021.

“We approved $169 billion in relief funds for nearly 4.8 million Americans who are eligible for aid under various programs, including teachers, veterans and other public employees, students defrauded by their colleges, borrowers with disabilities, and more,” Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said in a statement last week. “President Biden, Vice President Harris, and I are committed to fighting for affordable college for all.”

The relief was implemented through a combination of regulatory updates and executive actions that together have lowered barriers to accessing existing student loan forgiveness programs. The administration has touted improvements in public service loan forgiveness, IDR loan forgiveness, disability relief, and administrative relief for borrowers affected by school closures and institutional misconduct.

A major student loan forgiveness initiative ends on September 1

One of the Biden administration’s most successful initiatives, the IDR Account Adjustment, is scheduled to be completed by September 1. Nearly a third of all student loan forgiveness approved by the government to date has been through this program.

The IDR Account Adjustment is a temporary initiative. The program is designed to address years-long problems with income-driven repayment plans that resulted in borrowers not receiving the loan forgiveness credit they were entitled to under federal law. The program credits borrowers’ certain past deferment, forbearance, and repayment periods toward their loan forgiveness period under IDR and PSLF – periods that might have been denied under previous rules. As a result, at least one million borrowers have already received forgiveness of their student loans under the Account Adjustment, and millions more will shorten their remaining repayment time and advance their progress toward final relief.

Public Service Loan Forgiveness Tracking is Back

The Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, also known as PSLF, has had a checkered history. It was created in 2007 through bipartisan legislation to provide a path to student loan forgiveness for those who have worked in nonprofit or government careers for at least 10 years. However, as of 2021, the program never got beyond a low single-digit approval rate.

But since then, thanks to regulatory updates and temporary waivers from the Biden administration, nearly a million borrowers have received forgiveness of their student loans under PSLF.

After a brief pause this spring, PSLF tracking, which allows borrowers to track the progress of their student loan forgiveness, has resumed and is now located on StudentAid.gov. Previously, the PSLF program was administered by MOHELA (and before that, FedLoan Servicing). PSLF processing has also resumed following the transition that was completed in July and is expected to gain momentum in the coming months once the Department of Education clears its backlog.

SAVE plan is blocked and student loan forgiveness stopped

But it wasn’t all good news for borrowers. The SAVE plan – a new income-based plan introduced by the Biden administration last fall – is hanging by a thread. SAVE offers lower payments, an end to runaway balance growth associated with interest accumulation, and faster student loan forgiveness for certain borrowers. But earlier this month, a federal appeals court issued a preliminary injunction blocking all features of the SAVE plan, including student loan forgiveness. The Biden administration has now appealed to the Supreme Court.

Meanwhile, millions of borrowers enrolled in SAVE have been granted administrative payment forbearance. They will not have to make payments and their balances will not increase through interest charges, but the payment forbearance period will not count toward student loan forgiveness under either IDR or PSLF, leaving at least eight million borrowers in limbo for now.

Student loan forgiveness under other IDR plans may be at risk

The impact of the legal battle over the SAVE plan could also affect other IDR plans. The 8th Circuit Court of Appeals’ ruling called into question student loan forgiveness under related plans such as Income-Contingent Repayment, Pay As You Earn and Revised Pay As You Earn. These IDR plans were all established under the same statutory authority as the SAVE plan and have been in effect for more than 30 years. These IDR plans are not being challenged in the litigation over the SAVE plan, and for three decades, Democratic and Republican administrations have all pointed out that borrowers under these plans are eligible for student loan forgiveness after 20 or 25 years of repayment (depending on the plan). But the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals suggested it was about to turn that longstanding consensus on its head.

Meanwhile, in the same order, the 8th Circuit appeared to prohibit the Biden administration from implementing student loan forgiveness under any program for borrowers currently enrolled in SAVE — even if they are eligible for relief under programs that are not being challenged and have nothing to do with SAVE, such as PSLF. The government’s lawyers called that ban “extraordinary” and “grossly overbroad.”

New student loan forgiveness plan is imminent

While the Biden administration is still mired in litigation over the SAVE plan, officials are putting the finishing touches on a new student loan forgiveness program that is set to launch in a few weeks. This plan could provide massive relief to 25 million or more borrowers who began repaying 20 or 25 years ago, experienced skyrocketing interest rates, attended school with low credit scores, or were eligible for student loan forgiveness under other plans but never enrolled.

The Education Department has given borrowers until Aug. 31 to opt out of the relief. After that, officials have indicated, debt relief could begin automatically (i.e., no application is required) sometime in October. Of course, legal challenges are widely expected.

The fate of student loan forgiveness likely depends on the Supreme Court and the upcoming election

As the Biden administration appeals the 8th Circuit’s recent preliminary injunction, the Supreme Court is close to making its final decision on student loan forgiveness under the SAVE plan and several other IDR plans. Any appeals aimed at blocking the upcoming mass student loan forgiveness program, expected to launch in October, could also end up before the Supreme Court.

But the upcoming November election will also be critical to the fate of student loan forgiveness and student debt relief in general. Most of these legal challenges are based on arguments that Congress did not authorize the relief provided and that the Biden administration essentially went too far, beyond Congress’s intentions, when it passed legislation that officials relied on to create these programs. Should Vice President Kamala Harris win the White House and Democrats also manage to hold the Senate and retake the House of Representatives, they could pass legislation codifying these programs, strengthening their legal basis and effectively neutralizing these legal challenges.

On the other hand, if former President Trump returns to office and Republicans take over Congress, Project 2025 calls for the elimination of all work- and time-based student loan forgiveness programs. This could jeopardize PSLF, IDR, and other debt relief.