Why the Bayesian superyacht sank, leaving one dead and six missing
More bodies found in tech entrepreneur’s family yacht
Rescue workers used an underwater drone to search for bodies in a sunken yacht off the coast of Italy.
On a sunny day at the end of July, the Bayesian set off on a leisurely cruise along the southern coast of Italy.
The luxury superyacht – which boasted one of the world’s tallest masts and carried a crew of business tycoons including British technology magnate Mike Lynch and his family, as well as a Morgan Stanley executive – set sail from the Amalfi Coast and headed for Sicily.
Less than a month later, the ship had sunk 58 meters under water. The cook was dead and six passengers, including at least two Americans, were missing. A large-scale search operation was launched that attracted international attention.
Now experts are trying to figure out why the Bayesian probe was quickly pulled beneath the waves in the early hours of Monday morning during a storm that saw at least one tornado form over the water.
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A perfect storm led to Bayesian downfall, experts say
The combination of unlikely factors that may have contributed to the ship’s fate represents a “black swan event,” Matthew Schanck, chairman of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, told USA TODAY.
The Bayesian system was well built: According to Schanck, it was manufactured in 2008 by Italian shipbuilder Perini, designed to international shipping standards and commercially certified by the UK Maritime and Coastguard Agency.
The storm wave that swept across the area when the ship sank was also unusual in the northern Mediterranean, “which is not exactly known for long-lasting, severe stormy weather,” he said.
“The fact that these two elements led to the sinking of a superyacht is quite extraordinary,” said Schanck. “Something like this doesn’t happen every day.”
After the ship sank shortly before 5 a.m. local time, 15 people, including a one-year-old child, were pulled from the water. Some were rescued from a life raft by the crew of a ship docked nearby.
Ricardo Thomas, the ship’s cook from Antigua, was found dead, according to authorities.
As of Tuesday, six people remain missing, including Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter. Several missing passengers were implicated in Lynch’s fraud trial, including Morgan Stanley CEO Jonathan Bloomer, who served as a character witness, and one of Lynch’s lawyers. Lynch, who was charged with fraud after selling his company to electronics giant Hewlett-Packard, was acquitted of all charges weeks ago.
Who is Mike Lynch? British businessman among those missing after superyacht sank off Sicily
Tornado formed over unusually hot water
According to local meteorologists, the storms in the region that night may have triggered a waterspout, a tornado over the water.
The trigger was probably the unusual warmth of the water, said Rick Shema, a certified consulting meteorologist who served in the Navy.
“The waterspout was an unusual event,” he said. “But these things happen, especially in warmer water.”
At 83.7 degrees, water in the region was more than three degrees warmer than average on the day the Bayesian sank, likely due to climate change, Shema said.
“Hurricanes can form at 80 degrees. This temperature difference was almost four degrees higher,” he said.
The waterspout may have been formed when cooler air from nearby mountains fell on the hot water, he said. “A waterspout is a vortex, basically like a tornado, that spins very quickly and picks up water and moisture as it rises,” he said.
Although waterspouts only travel at speeds of around 190 km/h, while tornadoes on land can reach speeds of up to 480 km/h, “you don’t need 320 km/h to sink a ship,” he said.
“Even with an average tornado at 120 mph, that’s a lot of wind,” he said, “and it would certainly tip the boat over on its side.”
Waterspouts come up suddenly, Shema said. The wind may be slow beforehand, but “as soon as the waterspout is there, boom, it starts,” he said.
Before sunrise, the ship’s crew may not have seen the water fountain coming. “Visibility was probably an important factor,” he said.
If the yacht’s windows were open, which was likely the case in the hot weather, the jet of water could have caused water to enter through the portholes and sink the ship, Shema said.
Tragedy strikes: Search for survivors after Bayesian yacht off the coast of Sicily
Search continues, but transition to recovery phase is approaching
According to Mitchell Stoller, a captain and maritime expert, Italian authorities said the Bayesian was probably anchored when the storm struck, meaning it could not maneuver and navigate the waves. Other ships in the area that turned on their engines survived the storm, he said.
“When you’re at anchor and you see weather, you start the engine and bring the wind to the bow. You don’t let it come to the side,” he said.
Another important question, Schanck said, concerns the position of the keel, a heavy weight under the boat that served as a counterweight to keep it upright when the ship sank. If this is raised, “it will affect the stability of the ship because it will obviously raise the ship’s center of gravity,” he said.
The Bayesian was floating at a depth of over 50 meters at the time, deep enough that the keel would probably have been extended. But the fact that “the ship tilted so much makes me doubt that,” Schanck said.
The cause of the disaster can only be determined once the ship has been examined more closely, experts say. The public prosecutor’s office in a nearby town has already launched an investigation.
Schanck said investigators will have a lot of work to do once the operation enters the recovery phase.
“The ship is intact and in good condition on the seabed,” he said. “There are many eyewitness accounts from other ships in the area and from the coast.”
As the search entered its second day on Tuesday, rescue efforts could soon move in that direction. “I suspect that later, today or tomorrow, we will probably mention a recovery operation,” Schanck said.
The decision will depend on whether the rescue workers find signs of life and air pockets or survivable spaces in the ship, Schanck said. At this point in time, it is unlikely that there are survivors on the water surface. “In my professional opinion, the victims will be found inside the ship,” he said.
“There is a risk-benefit balance in all search and rescue operations at sea,” he said. “When we move into the recovery phase, that boundary shifts.”
Contributors: Reuters
Cybele Mayes-Osterman is a breaking news reporter for USA Today. You can reach her by email at [email protected]. Follow her on X @CybeleMO.
