After analyzing the U.S. Coast Guard’s projections for the future Polar Security Cutter program, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the cost of the series of three icebreaking ships could be $5 billion – about 60 percent more than the current official forecast. The Coast Guard had previously raised its own estimate by 20 percent due to challenges in the program and is currently making a further revision.

The icebreaker program has been plagued by delays. The first hull was originally awarded to VT Halter in 2019 and was scheduled for delivery this year. Halter has since been acquired by Bollinger and the program is progressing slowly due to incomplete design work, according to the CBO.

Like the design for the U.S. Navy’s Constellation-class frigate, the design for the Polar Security Cutter began as a commercial hull form from Europe. Both programs have gone through years of design changes, and both still have a lot of work on the drawing board. According to the CBO, the design for the Coast Guard’s heavy icebreaker program was less than 60 percent complete in July.

The CBO also believes that the conversion of the Coast Guard’s soon-to-be-acquired commercial icebreaker, Anchor Guide Aiviqwill take “at least two years”. This is longer than previously reported and would Aiviqs Commissioning will begin in late 2026 at the earliest.

The service’s only medium-sized icebreaker, USCGC Healyis out of service due to a recent electrical fire. The CBO has raised the new possibility that the fire may not be fully repairable. “The Coast Guard is uncertain if and when the vessel will be able to resume normal operations,” the CBO warned.

The office warned that costs would increase if the Coast Guard decided to add another shipyard to the program.

“If Bollinger is unable to build the ships, or if the service needs more PSCs faster than the shipyard can build them, then the cost of the program will likely be higher because the new shipyard will have to build its own lead ship, a notoriously difficult task, and because each shipyard will have fewer learning experiences by building fewer ships,” the CBO warned.

The White House has encouraged Canadian icebreaker builder Davie to enter into a new shipyard partnership in the United States to attract foreign orders for series production and export.