The state’s biggest political question ahead of Tuesday’s primary was whether the far-right Wyoming Freedom Caucus could win enough seats to take control of the House of Representatives and push through drastic budget cuts and an extreme agenda on sensitive social issues.

Wyoming is closer than I ever thought possible to appointing two-term Freedom Caucus Rep. Chip Neiman (R-Hulett) to the House Speakership, with the power to appoint committee chairs and set the legislative agenda.

But for those of us who abhor the potentially devastating effects of such an upheaval, there is still hope. As Yogi Berra once said, “It ain’t over until it’s over,” and we won’t know until the general election on November 5th whether the upstart faction will have a clear majority in the House.

This numbers game is full of nuance. There are still many stones to fall before a change in power pushes the Wyoming Caucus – the traditionally more conservative and once all-powerful Republicans – into the background.

Last year, Republican Rep. John Bear (D-Gillette), chairman of the Freedom Caucus, said the group needed about 10 new members to have a consistent voting bloc that could pass its bills in the House. This year, it was able to reliably muster 26 votes, giving it enough votes to block any bill it didn’t like during the budget session.

During the 20-day budget sessions, a two-thirds majority of the chamber is required to introduce non-budgetary bills, making deadlocks easy. In a 40-day general session, the magic number to introduce bills in the House is 32.

While the five Democrats in the 62-member House of Representatives do not have the power to pass legislation themselves, they have generally sided with the Wyoming Caucus on key votes. Their outsized power last session left the Freedom Caucus waiting in the wings, and they will play a critical role in this year’s general election.

There are six key races that will determine whether the Freedom Caucus achieves its goal.

The Freedom Caucus Republicans are running against the Democrats in four races. Representative Ocean Andrew (R-Laramie) will run against Chris Lowry in the 46th House District.

Representative Sarah Penn (R-Lander) will run against Democrat Ivan Posey in the 33rd House District.

Republican Rep. Jared Olsen, a member of the Wyoming Caucus, gave up his House 11th District seat in Cheyenne to run for Senate. Newcomer Jacob Wasserburger won the Republican nomination and will face former Democratic Rep. Sarah Burlingame.

In Cheyenne’s 41st House District, Gary Brown defeated moderate Rep. Bill Henderson in the Republican race and will now face Democrat Jen Solis.

Rep. Clarence Styvar won the Republican nomination in the 12th District and has no Democratic opponent. However, independent Joe Ramirez is trying to collect enough signatures by August 26 to get on the ballot and challenge Styvar.

The same scenario will play out in Sheridan’s 51st district, where Wyoming Caucus member Cyrus Western has decided not to seek re-election. Freedom Caucus candidate Laurie Bratten, who ran unopposed, will likely face former Republican Senator Bruce Burns, who could be expected to join the Wyoming caucus.

If the Freedom Caucus wins at least half of these key elections, it would have enough members to take a majority in the House. But to narrow the magic number to just three, a trio of incumbent Democrats in Albany County – Trey Sherwood, Karlee Provenza and Ken Chestek – would also have to defeat the Freedom Caucus candidates.

There is no easy way to avoid a Freedom Caucus apocalypse, but it is possible. Now is the time for Democrats, independents, and anyone else who doesn’t want the radical right to control the House to join forces for the common good.

These include traditional conservatives and moderates in the Wyoming Republican Party.

There will be 14 fewer incumbents in the House of Representatives as 10 members of the Wyoming Caucus and four members of the Freedom Caucus lost their seats on Tuesday. The Wyoming Caucus casualties include veteran Republican Reps. Dan Zwonitzer, David Northrup of Powell, Tom Walters of Casper and Clark Stith of Rock Springs.

But the Freedom Caucus also lost some of its stars. Chief among them was Rep. Jeanette Ward of Casper, who called herself a “political refugee from Illinois” and became the focal point of anti-Freedom Caucus sentiment. Ward not only sponsored a bill that would have jailed librarians for putting LGBTQ-themed books on public shelves, but also proposed the failed “What Is a Woman Act,” which would have defined people by gender in state law.

Bear once referred to Ward as the “Joan of Arc” of the legislature. Republican challenger Julie Jarvis defeated Ward by 183 votes, which isn’t the same as burning at the stake, but the conservative hardliner is probably feeling a little stiff after his defeat.

The Freedom Caucus has done remarkably well for a coalition that had only about eight or nine members when it was formed in 2020. The leader of that movement, then-Rep. Tim Hallinan of Gillette, lost the election in 2022. Another founding member, Rep. Mark Jennings of Sheridan, lost his Senate bid on Tuesday when he was defeated by Rep. Barry Crago, a member of the Wyoming caucus.

Thirty of the Freedom Caucus-backed House candidates won their Republican primaries. Twelve did not, however, including Kathy Russell, executive director of the Wyoming Republican Party. She ran against Rep. Bob Nicholas, a member of the Wyoming Caucus in Cheyenne who co-chairs the powerful Joint Budget Committee.

But if the Freedom Caucus wins control, Nicholas will likely be replaced by Bear, who will push state budget cuts to the limit. Expect public education, social services, mental health, and the University of Wyoming to be hit hard, but they’ll be in good company.

Anti-LGBTQ laws, additional abortion restrictions, and more public funding for private and religious schools are also what we can expect in the future.

If you think your vote doesn’t count in Wyoming’s elections, think again. In the 62nd House District, Freedom Caucus candidate Kevin Campbell beat Edis Allen by just seven votes. Allen was endorsed by Americans for Progress-Wyoming, a conservative group that supports mostly moderate candidates.

Bob Wharff of Evanston is another primary winner who complicates the story about the far-right’s influence in the legislature. The former Freedom Caucus lawmaker, who previously served in the House, was rebuked by Bear for “abandoning” true conservative causes and running an unsuccessful 2022 Senate campaign.

Although Wharff shares most of the Freedom Caucus’s positions, he had a lot of negative things to say about Bear when he was grilled two years ago. Bear may not be able to count on him for every vote, but I imagine he will make an effort to bring Wharff back into the fold. Even if that doesn’t work, it doesn’t matter whether Wharff is a registered member or not.

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. It doesn’t have to, if enough people go to the polls in November who don’t want Wyoming to move further to the right.