Statistics in the spotlight: The last gasp of inflation?
Nate Kucsma, senior research director at ASI, said he wouldn’t be surprised if the fourth quarter of 2024 was particularly strong for promotional product sales.
Certain market developments could help to bring about the hoped-for strong annual results.
Rampant inflation appears to have finally been reined in, consumers continue to spend more, and the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter to half a percentage point in September. Many economists believe this move will stimulate the economy and help avoid a recession.
Rising unemployment and a slowdown in hiring are undeniable headwinds that can’t be ignored, but there’s a wealth of positive macro data that gives cause for sober optimism about the economy – a fact that could help ad buyers who have been hesitant to spend money on merchandising to invest in the medium again. Here’s a look at some key numbers:
2.9%
Annual increase in Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July 2024 compared to July 2023. The CPI is a Inflation meter that measures what consumers payThe July figure marked the lowest annual increase since March 2021.(Ministry of Labour)
3.2%
Increase in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July 2024 compared to July 2023. Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy Prices.(Ministry of Labour)
2.2%
The annual increase in Producer Price Index (PPI) this July compared to the same month last year. This was a decrease of one 2.7% Jump in June. The PPI essentially measures what is paid at the wholesale level.(Ministry of Labour)
2.4%
The core PPI Annual increase in July, the lowest since March this year. Core PPI excludes fleeting categoriessuch as food and energy.(Ministry of Labour)
2.8%
Annualized rate of Growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2024. That was twice as much 1.4% rose in the first quarter, exceeding economists’ forecasts.(Office for Economic Analysis)
Consumer spending
Retail and catering sales in the USA rose 2.7% In July, the figure was 1.2% compared to the same period last year and 1% compared to the previous month, June.(Federal Census Office)
2.4%
The forecast of the analyst Deloitte for the real GDP growth of the US economy for the whole of 2024. Annual growth will slow to 1.1% in 2025, but tick above 1.5% between 2026 and 2028, says Deloitte.(Deloitte)
114,000
Number of Jobs US employers added in July 2024, well below the 179,000 New positions were added in June of this year.(Ministry of Labour)
4.3%
The Unemployment rate in the USA At the end of July, that was the highest level since late 2021, but still not far above historic lows, analysts said.(Ministry of Labour)
227,000
The number of Initial applications for unemployment benefits filed in the week ending August 10. This is a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week.
1.3%
Average collective Increase in sales compared to the previous year that promotional product retailers achieved in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter of 2023.(ASI Research)
