“But that fantasy football player disappointed me! I’ll never draft him again!” That’s what fantasy managers say every year, and the bitterness is real. That’s what makes “last year’s garbage” so attractive. When managers have players that disappoint them, they often rip them from their memories like Thanos, meaning those players drop in ADP. Usually, the disappointments are several rounds cheaper than the previous year. That, in turn, makes them interesting for you, as you often get a floor price with high ROI potential. Let’s look at my 11 favorite players from the “garbage” of 2023 and why I’m investing for 2024.

FALCONS EDITION

Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, ATL — It’s all too obvious to most that the Falcons’ offense under Arthur Smith and with weak quarterback play frustrated fantasy managers. The biggest reason for the anger was Smith’s inconsistent use of Robinson, the eighth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and a truly elite talent. Tyler Allgeier is no pushover, but why draft Robinson at 1.08 when he has so many other needs unless you’re going to whip him to the limit? London and Pitts are big talents in their own right, as Pitts had a historic rookie season for tight ends… in yards, and London can be a top-20 NFL wideout and possibly more.

Kirk Cousins, replacing Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, is a huge addition, and Raheem Morris brought in Zac Robinson as offensive coordinator. The Zac Robinson effect is already visible this preseason with a big increase in three-wide/11 sets. Cousins ​​has averaged 269.5 passing yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game over the past four years. London and Pitts have potential as WR1 and top-5 tight ends, respectively, and Bijan Robinson is in the conversation as a top-5 running back in this offense with more consistent leadership.

COMMANDER EDITION

Austin Ekeler, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, WHAT — Sam Howell was fun in fantasy until late in the 2023 season, but his play was a better boost to fantasy than he was on the field. Additionally, Howell’s inconsistency – both in the game and in targeting Dotson – coupled with Ron Rivera’s questionable coaching led to disappointing seasons for Dotson and McLaurin. As for Ekeler, he battled injuries for most of the season and made a deal to share the backfield with Brian Robinson.

The Commanders have a new coaching regime just like the Falcons, and Dan Quinn brought in Kliff Kingsbury to run the offense. Jayden Daniels is now quarterback, and given the reports and preseason usage, Dotson is back in his slot role after playing outside a lot in the NFL. While that’s good for his skill set, the question remains whether that means Dotson leaves the field for two wide receivers. Either way, he’s worth a shot in the late rounds, but the real comeback appeal lies with McLaurin and Ekeler. McLaurin was in the top 25 before last year, and if Daniels treats McLaurin as his No. 1 target, McLaurin would be back in that conversation. With Daniels’ long ball and touchdown potential, McLaurin can even push for the top 15. As for Ekeler, Robinson seems to lead the backfield, but that also seems more like a mix of Steelers 2023 in the backfield. If that happens, Ekeler can become a viable weekly starter again and even get back into the RB2 group if his targets hit 50+… and there’s a chance he’s the second-best target option on this team.

BOUNCEBACK QUARTERBACK

Trevor Lawrence, JAC — Lawrence hasn’t been even close to “generational” up to this point in his NFL career. Sure, his first two seasons’ stats of 4113/25 and 4016/21, respectively, are decent, but they’re far from great and far from “the best since…” We can let him get away with the Urban Meyer effect, but Lawrence still looks uncomfortable at times and makes decisions/throws that a quarterback of his talent shouldn’t be making. So why should we bet on a rebound, especially now that Calvin Ridley is gone? To be honest, I’m not saying it’s a guarantee that Lawrence will Rebound. However, freshman Brian Thomas Jr. is a top talent who is somewhat overshadowed by the incredibly talented wideout class, and Gabe Davis can also grab rebounds and thus offers more potential than Zay Jones.

Even with the coaching staff unchanged and Travis Etienne and Evan Engram still on the board, it all comes down to Lawrence. If he sees the game the way he did at Clemson, which includes a little more running, Lawrence has the talent and weapons to reach 4,000 yards passing and nearly 30 touchdowns. Even if he doesn’t run anymore, adding something in the range of 300/3+ on the ground helps Lawrence’s upside. What makes Lawrence particularly attractive to “last year’s garbage” is that he’s not a top-10 QB in ADP. Now you get him after the top 15 are off the board and in rounds 10-11. You get all the potential for the price of Lawrence’s floor.

BOUNCEBACK RUNNINGBACK

Javonte Williams, DEN — Williams wouldn’t be the first running back to need a full year to get back to looking like he did before his injury. Of course, Audric Estime is a strong option, and Jaleel McLaughlin has explosiveness, especially in the passing game. However, Williams, at his best, has a mix of both and the makings of a top-20 running back. The obvious concern is Sean Payton uses multiple running backs, and that will be amplified if Estime and McLaughlin are available as options. Back to Williams, let’s not forget how much he impressed as a rookie, posting 203/903/4 and 43/316/3 while sharing the backfield — nearly 50/50 — with Melvin Gordon. Even then, Williams would be a top-20 running back and a player who can bounce back, and if Payton gave him 260+ touches, an RB1 finish would be possible. While the risk of a committee is real, Williams is worth the risk given the cost of RB31 in rounds 7-8.

BOUNCEBACK WIDE RECEIVER

Tee Higgins, CIN – Although Higgins disappointed last year, he produced point totals of 163.1, 182.1, and 181.9, respectively, in his first three seasons, finishing between WR27 and WR18 in points, including two consecutive WR14 seasons in FPPG (2021-22). Tyler Boyd is gone, Joe Burrow is healthy again, and there’s a big question mark over the No. 3 option – Andrei Iosivas, Jermaine Burton, Mike Gesicki, etc. This one is relatively easy. Higgins is a guarantee of 110+ targets, possibly even close to 130, and at just 110, Higgins would be back to his 2021-22 season.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA — JSN is a cautionary tale of a talented rookie landing in a spot where he can’t make an immediate, high-level impact because of the talent present. As a sophomore, Smith-Njigba has a chance to fill the No. 2 role without an injury ahead of him. Tyler Lockett failed to exceed his draft cost for the first time in five years, and he turns 32 on Sept. 28. Additionally, an interesting and promising nugget from 2023 was that JSN led the Seahawks in TmTGT% on third down (27.7). Lockett was second at 24.3% and Metcalf at 18.9%. Geno Smith and the Seahawks already have a lot of faith in Smith-Njigba, and his skill set holds the potential for Lockett to slide into the No. 3, heavier slot, and rotation role. If that happens and JSN reaches Lockett’s 122 targets from last year, a top-30 finish is more than doable and he only costs WR45/Round 9 this year.

BOUNCEBACK TIGHT ENDS – BACK

Dallas Goedert, PhD — I went into detail about the coaching changes, with a focus on pre-snap movement, and one of the teams that stood out was the Eagles. Goedert had two consecutive top-10 finishes — overall and FPPG — before dropping to TE15 overall and T-12 with Hunter Henry and Taysom Hill in FPPG last year. With Kellen Moore and his strong pre-snap attack movement, the passing game gets a boost, helping Jalen Hurts return to his 2022 efficiency and potentially have his best passing season. It’s not just Hurts, as that would leave the Eagles with a valuable third option behind AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, that points to Goedert. In the previous two seasons, he posted 2.36 and 1.83 YPRR, respectively, before disappointing with 1.36 last year. On a positive note, however, Goedert was top 10 in third-down target rate at 16.9%, a mark almost identical to 2022 (when Hurts was at his best). If you miss out on one of the big names at the tight end position, wait and take Goedert in rounds 9-10 for his potential return to the top 10.

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