Regardless of his performance on the ice, Elvis Merzlikins loves the city of Columbus and its fans and is tireless in his efforts to support and give back to the community.

Putting that aside for a moment and focusing on his play on the ice, to say that Elvis has struggled in the NHL over the past two seasons since his stellar rookie and sophomore seasons would be a bit of an understatement.

According to NHL.com, Elvis had a 3.22 goals-against average and .907 save percentage during the 2021-2022 season. Since then, he has not had a save percentage above .900 all season, averaging 4.23 and 3.45 goals-against averages over the past two seasons, respectively.

Moneypuck.com lists him as the 10th worst goaltender in Goals Saved Above Expected last season with a -6.3 and at least 30 GP, and was a distant last in the same category in 2022-2023 with a GSAx of -25.9. GSAx tries to quantify how many goals the average goaltender in the NHL would save in the same situations. Elvis was significantly worse than the average expectations for an NHL starting goaltender.

Comparing Elvis’ -6.3 GSAx last season to every other goalie who wore Union Blue is instructive. Daniil Tarasov finished with exactly 0.0 GSAx and Jet Greaves with 3.9 GSAx. If we only considered Tarasov’s games after he was fully healthy at the start of the year, he would likely be much higher in this statistic.

These advanced stats help us quantify how much of the Blue Jackets’ defensive woes over the past few seasons are due to their shaky defense and how much is simply due to poor play in goal. Unfortunately for Elvis, in his case, it seems that the latter is more likely to affect the team’s poor play in the defensive zone than the team’s poor play in the former.

The question will be whether Elvis can build on his previous success next season. Elvis relies on an aggressive butterfly goaltending style that uses his excellent athleticism and size to create spectacular saves that he became known for during his rookie season in 2019.

However, in recent years, Elvis has clearly declined. He reacts late to pucks coming at him and has trouble adjusting to blocks and quick puck movements. Although he made some improvements last year under new goaltending coach Niklas Bäckström, it may not have been enough to save his job. Based on what we saw last year, I’m skeptical.

With Jet Greaves’ waiver exception and Daniil Tarasov’s contract both expiring at the end of next season, this feels like Elvis’ last chance in Columbus. I love Elvis; his fire on the ice, passion for the game and love for the fans endear him to many Jackets faithful. Any way you look at it, we could see his final season in the Union Blue in 2024-2025.

A bold prediction: Elvis will lose his starting spot in training camp and be paid out next summer.

It’s hard to be positive about the prospect of Elvis securing a starting spot right out of training camp heading into the upcoming season, with Daniil Tarasov looking ready to step into the role. The Jackets haven’t had a true No. 1 goalie since Sergei Bobrovsky in 2019, and this seems like the perfect opportunity for the once highly-prized goalie prospect to secure that role.