The Charlotte Hornets fan base is hungry for success. With both the Panthers and Hornets struggling in recent years, positive vibes have been rare. The fresh energy within the Hornets organization has been warmly welcomed, but VP of Basketball Operations Jeff Peterson faces a difficult decision: win, but not to much.

The Hornets owe their 2025 first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs after originally sending him to New York as part of the Kai Jones trade (yikes). The silver lining is that the pick is lottery-protected, meaning the Hornets will keep him if they finish outside of the playoffs (not just the play-in). That protection is especially important for the 2025 draft, which features generational talent Cooper Flagg, as well as at least five other players who would have been selected first in the 2024 draft, according to Sam Vecenie.

Given Las Vegas’ 29.5 wins, Charlotte should have no problem keeping the pick. But would Hornets fans be happy to be a sub-30 win team again? Hornets fans’ patience is stretched to the bone, they expect significant progress, and another season potentially marred by injuries would no longer be a justifiable excuse, even if it were valid.

According to Las Vegas’ projected total of 29.5 wins, Charlotte should have no problem retaining the pick. However, if Vegas is indeed right, would Hornets fans be happy with another sub-30 win season? Their patience is exhausted and they expect significant progress. Another injury-plagued season will no longer be a justifiable excuse, even if it were valid. Neither extreme wins nor extreme losses seem optimal, leaving a very narrow path of “absolute” success that looks something like this:

A strong start to the season and a challenge for a playoff spot would be a good start for the Hornets. The team could follow Danny Ainge’s playbook and make similar moves to the Utah Jazz: trade older veterans for valuable players at the trade deadline and then focus on developing young players as the season ends. This strategy could see them finish 11th or 12th in the East, with 32-36 wins and the 6th-9th best lottery odds.

“We will be patient owners committed to building our team the right way. There will be no easy solutions and we recognize this will require a lot of hard work from many people. We are focused on developing the right processes and structures for sustainable success. We promise we will do everything we can to make the most considered decisions for the long-term health of the franchise.”

– Rick Schnall and Gabe Plotkin

In this scenario, the team’s stars would have established themselves, veterans would have excelled in their roles, and young players would have made significant progress. Deviating from this narrow path risks either alienating the fan base or undermining the team’s future potential.

A counter to the argument that making the playoffs would be a negative is that if the Hornets made the playoffs, it would mean that their young stars LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller would have played at an All-Star level, in which case the team may not “need” another young lottery talent.

Examples of young teams that have made surprising jumps in a season include Orlando, Oklahoma City and Indiana. These teams have proven that missing out on a first-five pick hasn’t hindered them. If the Hornets can replicate that trajectory, the excitement and momentum of a playoff appearance could outweigh the benefits of a lottery pick.

Every fan’s take on this waiver. Season ticket holders and die-hard fans who live and die (mostly die) by every win or loss will be willing to sacrifice a first-round pick for a successful season. Those who are more detached and strategic in their fan base will likely prefer the “optimal” path of keeping the pick and moving on in 2025. The moves made this summer and the tone of ownership suggest the team is more inclined to a patient approach. But how would the fan base react to a mid-season trade job after the season started with a hint of success? That could be a bitter pill to swallow.

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