PPR Mock Draft: Brandon Aiyuk falls way too far behind before 2024
It’s never too early to start preparing to win your fantasy football league, and that’s exactly what we’ll be aiming to do today. Using the DraftHero mock draft simulator app on 4for4, I ran a 12-team PPR mock draft to get a rough idea of the player values and macro-level strategies we can expect ahead of the NFL season.
Today we’re using ESPN-specific scoring settings with a single quarterback and PPR scoring. The full 2024 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Board is included at the end of the article, showing players like Bijan Robinson (RB) of the Atlanta Falcons, Cooper Kupp (WR) of the Los Angeles Rams, and CeeDee Lamb (WR) of the Dallas Cowboys heading into this full PPR draft.
We will start by incorporating both PK and D/ST into this model to give a good idea of what a full team will look like in PPR Mock Drafts.
Roster settings: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 D/ST, 1K and 6 reserve spots
*Check out the full ESPN ADP at 4for4!
(For optimal display, enlarge the image in the new tab)
PPR Mock Draft: Rounds 1-4
Longest reach: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (Round 1, Pick 8)
Taylor missed the first few games of the 2022 season due to an ankle injury (and subsequent surgery) and didn’t play more than 50% of the snaps until Week 7.
From that point on, he had the third-highest per-game average (16.8) at his position, despite missing three games later in the season due to a thumb injury. He missed six games in 2022, but played 15 and 17 games in his first two seasons. In 2021, he was the RB1 in the overall scoring, outperforming the RB2 (Austin Ekeler) by 60 points.
Taylor should have a productive year in 2024, although there are a few areas of concern. Anthony Richardson only targeted his running backs on 10 of his 72 pass attempts (13.9%), and in the two full games Richardson played, he had three runs inside the opponent’s five-yard line while Indy’s running backs had five runs. It’s obviously a small sample size, and Taylor’s availability could change the ratio, but Richardson’s 38% run rate at the goal line is pretty high. (For comparison, Jalen Hurts had a 47% run rate at the goal line last season.) Taylor is a fantasy RB1, but he may lack the passing and touchdown potential of the backs drafted ahead of him.
Biggest drop: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers (Round 4, Pick 11)
Brandon Aiyuk was highly efficient again in 2023, converting the 29th most targets into the 12th most fantasy points. He was the fantasy WR15 in 2022, so he has consistently posted low WR1/high WR2 numbers recently.
Aiyuk earned a very rare “All Green” grade from Matt Harmon in Reception Perception, meaning he is one of the “truly best” receivers (Harmon’s words) in the league. While he doesn’t play as often as we’d like, he’s a good quarterback and a highly efficient playmaker. The only problem is his contract situation, which is tricky at best.
The good news is that his WR15 ADP is fair even if he ended up with another team, as his targets would likely increase by 20-30% or more.
PPR Mock Draft: Rounds 5-8
Findings
The quarterback position has been moved way up from previous years. In standard and half-PPR fantasy football leagues, the majority of top 12 options are in that range and are basically done in the double-digit rounds. A huge difference from recent history. Josh Allen starts as early as round 3 and the 12 teams usually have all their QBs by the time we get past those middle rounds.
For all of these options to come to fruition, the 2024 NFL season will have to be incredibly top-heavy. Once we’re talking in the range of 1-2 fantasy points per game separating entire groups of players, we might want to focus on the RBs and WRs while other fantasy managers struggle during a bunch of QBs.
PPR Mock Draft: Rounds 9-11
Longest reach: Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (Round 9, Pick 2)
I’ve said it before – Nick Chubb is one of the best pure runners in the league. In Week 2 of last season, he suffered two tears – one in his medial collateral ligament and one in his anterior cruciate ligament – and had to undergo two separate surgeries to repair them.
Our injury expert Jeff Mueller wrote, “What is likely not being reported is that there was also likely capsule damage and secondary stabilizer damage, similar to what both JK Dobbins and Javonte Williams struggled with.” Mueller believes the Browns are protecting themselves (with the signing of D’Onta Foreman) in case the 28-year-old is “never the same again.” Chubb is currently the RB35 taken off the board, six spots ahead of his backfield partner Jerome Ford.
The good news is that Chubb has released a video of him squatting tremendous weight. He needs to focus on touchdown and cutting, but the leg strength is clearly back. In 2022, he finished the season as the fantasy RB6 after being RB10 for 13 games the year before. So, based on his potential value in the second half of the season, Chubb is a worthwhile risk as an RB3 or RB4 in the ninth round.
PPR Mock Draft: Rounds 12-14
Findings
Depending on your league’s settings, you either have to leave your draft with a kicker and a defense, or not. I decided to enforce this rule in this draft to have a better idea of what a full team will look like in a half PR mock draft. If your league forces you to leave the draft with both, I would prefer to select my D/ST and kicker in the final two rounds. Some of my favorite D/ST picks at cost so far have been the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Giants, Los Angeles Rams, and Kansas City Chiefs.
Biggest drop: Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots (Round 13, Pick 12)
In the first four weeks of the 2023 season, Hunter Henry managed 50 yards three times and scored two touchdowns. However, he didn’t catch another touchdown until Week 9 and didn’t manage 50 yards again until Week 15.
He finished the season as the TE15, catching 42 passes for 419 yards and scoring six scores in 14 games. Re-signing with the Patriots probably wasn’t the best scenario for his fantasy value, but he should remain the team’s starter and could work his way into the TE2 range if the Patriots are able to get better quarterback performances from Drake Maye and/or Jacoby Brissett.
*Check out the full set of award-winning 4for4 rankings customized for your ESPN league here.
(For optimal display, enlarge the image in the new tab)
This is one of many PPR mock drafts for 2024, and we’ll be doing more of them now that the preseason is already in full swing! We’ll have half-PPR mock drafts, 10-team mocks, and everything in between throughout fantasy draft season.
Frequently Asked Questions about Fantasy Football PPR Mock Draft
PPR stands for “One Point Per Reception,” which means a player receives a full point for each catch in a game in addition to the normal points.
This scoring system is becoming increasingly popular in fantasy football leagues as it allows for a more balanced approach to player selection. Mock drafts are a great way to practice draft strategies and optimize your team before the actual draft. The Fantasy Football PPR Mock Draft FAQs provide answers to frequently asked questions to help fantasy football fans with their mock drafts and overall game play.
What is a fantasy football mock draft?
A fantasy football mock draft is a simulation of a real fantasy football draft that allows participants to practice mock drafts and prepare for the real game.
What is a PPR assessment format?
In a PPR scoring format, players receive one full point per reception in addition to their normal scoring points.
What are the most important things to consider before participating in a fantasy football draft?
Before you enter a fantasy football draft, you should research the draft rankings, understand your league’s scoring system and rules, and stay up to date on NFL players and field players.
What is the difference between a 12-team and 14-team fantasy football mock draft?
The difference between a 12-team and 14-team fantasy football mock draft is the number of teams participating in the draft. In a 12-team draft, draftees must select players from a pool of 144, while a 14-team draft consists of 168 players.
How are players selected in a fantasy football draft?
In a fantasy football draft, each participant takes turns selecting players in each round. The order of the draft is usually randomized before the draft begins, with each participant selecting their preferred position for their draft slot.
What tips are there for putting together a successful fantasy football team?
Tips for building a successful fantasy football team include following updates on player performance and injuries, diversifying your team with a mix of players from different teams, and selecting players with favorable matchups.
What is the difference between a rookie and an experienced football player in fantasy football?
In fantasy football, a rookie is a player who has just entered the NFL and has not yet played any professional games, while a veteran is an experienced player who has already played several seasons.
How often are the fantasy football rankings updated?
Fantasy football rankings are typically updated daily by fantasy staff and analysts based on player performance and changes in the NFL landscape.